Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Wednesday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

TODAY'S FED DECISION, GDP REPORT, MARKET REACTION & MORE...Our all-star panel of stock market, Fed, and economic experts will discuss and debate the day's market-moving news, trends, and developments.

On board:

*Wayne Angell, former Federal Reserve Governor
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Mike Ozanian, Forbes Magazine Senior Editor
*Bob McTeer, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
*Mark Skousen, financial economist, author, professor and editor of Forecasts & Strategies

MCCAIN'S HEALTHCARE PLAN...Joining us to debate Sen. John McCain's healthcare plan is "Supercapitalism" author and former labor secretary Robert Reich and former New York lieutenant governor and health policy expert Betsy Ross McCaughey.

THE STOCK MARKET, ECONOMY & FED...Our guests will offer their perspective on all of today's stock market and economic events.

On board:

*Jim Awad, chairman of WP Stewart Asset Management
*Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors
*John Browne, senior market strategist at Euro Pacific Capital

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Recession? What Recession?

U.S. News & World Report's "Jimmy P" Pethokoukis and economist Jerry Bowyer - both regular contributors to Kudlow & Company - deliver two amusing takes on today's GDP number and the muddled response from the economic punditocracy. Incidentally, take a look at the Intrade pay-to-play prediction market's collapsing recession odds: they plummeted 20 points this morning. Talk about falling off a cliff.

Dude, Where's My Recession?
April 30, 2008 09:51 AM ET James Pethokoukis Permanent Link

Out: Recession. In: Expansion. That's my quick take on today's first-quarter gross domestic product number, which showed that the economy grew 0.6 percent in the first quarter. Now that's not a robust number by any means, but it's not so bad given all the worry out there that the economy is headed off a cliff. Before you declare a recession, as many economic pundits have, shouldn't the economy, well, actually recess a bit—if only for a quarter?

Remember, the shorthand rule for declaring a recession is back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The semiofficial recession judge, the National Bureau of Economic Research, has a more complex formula, but I am not sure it has ever declared a recession when the economy never actually shrank. And consider this: The Intrade online betting market now says there is a meager 25 percent chance of a recession—using the negative-back-to-back-quarters definition—in 2008.

Plus, don't forget that there's a lag before all that monetary stimulus from the Fed kicks in. (It's not too late to do nothing today, Bernanke!) Who knows—those rebate checks might even help a bit, though we're probably not getting much bang for the nearly $200 billion we're spending.

As a movie buff, I keep looking for the right cinematic analogy for the American economy. Try this one: It's like the Terminator. Not the Schwarzenegger one—the other one, the Terminator from the second film. You could empty a shotgun—or in this case, an imploding housing market, credit crunch, and high oil prices—into that morphing metal dude, and before you know it, the thing's all healed and chasing you again.


* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

-----Original Message-----
From: Jerry Bowyer
Sent: Wednesday, April 30, 2008 11:09 AM
Subject: RE: We Are In a Recession

Okay, so here we are again. Another quarter and another plus sign. The economy grew every quarter last year and, so far, it's continued to grow this year. The pessimistic-financial-pundit-industrial complex suffers another quarter of model-crushing data. Will they change their models? Don't count on it. Fear sells, it sells newsletters; it sells bookings; it sells speaking gigs.

Today, brace yourself for the tribe of Yesbuts.

Yes, but the postive GDP is from inventory adjustments.
Sure it is. Shouldn't inventory be counted in GDP?

Yes, but it's also from government expenditures.
Shouldn't government spending be counted in GDP. Especially for those Yesbuts on the left...it seems that you see government expenditures as being a good thing, except when they boost growth.

Yes, but Gross Domestic Income differs a little.

GDI is a fine statistic, which will be rediscovered today in a desperate search for bad news. Even as I write, financial pundits are dusting off their college Macroeconmics textbooks and rifling through pages trying to relearn how GDI is calculated. Let me save you the trouble. Its made up of personal income, plus business profit, plus sole proprieter income. The business profit is domestic only, hence the D in GDI. If you want to capture the productive power of US business overseas, look at the long-neglected GNP, which has been doing quite well lately. Though, it's not out for Q1 yet.

Yes, but durable goods were down in Q1.

Indeed they were, which means that the rest of the economy was strong enough to pull us into positive territory. On top of that durable goods were down, not because of economic weakness but because some probusiness investment tax cuts expired in December and were not reinstated until halfway through the first quarter. It wasn't recession; it was a temporary tax code distortion.

For the perma-pessmists who were flat out 100% sure that 'we're already in a recession, the debate is about how long and how deep' - back to the spreadsheets.

For the rest of you - have a nice day.

Jerry Bowyer

Chief Economist Benchmark Financial

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Tuesday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS & ECONOMY...Our stock market panel will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends, and developments affecting the stock market and economy.

On board:

*Joe Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus
*Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro
*Jerry Bowyer, chief economist at Benchmark Financial Network
*Herb Greenberg, senior Marketwatch columnist/CNBC contributor

OIL, ETHANOL, & MORE...Syndicated columnist Deroy Murdock and economist Jared Bernstein will join the market panel with their perspectives in a discussion/debate over rising commodity prices.

DEBATE: YOUR MONEY, YOUR VOTE...Our Washington to Wall Street guests will square off on a host of hot-button primary politics issues.

On board:

*Ann Coulter, syndicated columnist
*Tanya Acker, independent media, legal and political consultant

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Bush Whiffs on the Dollar

In his news conference today President Bush really didn’t get to the key point on soaring gas and food prices: The best short-term policy is to strengthen the dollar. Bring back King Dollar.

Whether it’s energy, wheat, grain, corn, or whatever, since these raw materials are priced in dollars on global markets, a strong greenback will reduce commodity prices. And that, in turn, will lower both consumer and producer inflation. This would help corporate profits and would boost the purchasing power of wages.

In other words, a strong dollar would relieve gas prices and boost the economy. But so far as I know, the president never mentioned the dollar. And I don’t think any of the media people asked him about it.

Right now Mr. Bush should order his Treasury Secretary to appreciate the greenback and work with the G7 for concerted action that would send a strong signal to commodity and currency traders that they better close their short positions on the dollar and stop speculating on higher and higher commodity prices. Mr. Bush himself should adopt new rhetoric on a strong dollar. He should make it unambiguous.

In today’s consumer confidence report, inflation expectations surged to 6.8 percent for the next year. One year ago they were 5.1 percent. This is not good. And of course, gasoline prices at the pump as well as supermarket prices for food are becoming huge political issues. Huge! Bigger than the war and bigger than the economy.

Additionally, the president really missed the ethanol questions. He acknowledged that ethanol mandates are contributing roughly 15 percent to rising food. But he didn’t indicate any interest in eliminating the ethanol subsidy (a subject on which Deroy Murdock has artfully written).

The president was dead right in opposing the huge $280 billion farm bill. But on ethanol and the greenback he whiffed.

This is too bad, because the Fed meets tomorrow and is likely to end its interest-rate cuts after one more quarter point. I would prefer the central bank not even make the last cut to 2 percent. Money-market futures are now predicting a higher fed target rate next year. And if that expectation pans out, it will give a boost to the dollar and reduce all these inflationary pressures.

But defending the currency should also be done by the commander in chief and his Treasury man. As the Fed begins to shift gears, now would be a great time to resurrect the dollar.

Truly, we need a return to King Dollar and an end to the U.S. peso. Senator John McCain, are you listening?

Monday, April 28, 2008

Monday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS, M&A, & MORE...Our stock market all-stars will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends and developments affecting investors.

On board:

*Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets
*Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times reporter

THE FED & ECONOMY...The Wall Street Journal's Steve Moore will join Messrs. Shilling, Busch and Farrell with a look ahead at this week's Fed meeting and the state of the U.S. economy.

OIL, ENERGY, FOOD & GAS PRICES, ETC...Our energy experts will join the market panel with some perspective on rising prices.

On board:

*John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at MF Global Ltd
*Dan Yergin, Cambridge Energy Research Chairman

DEBATE: THE DYNAMIC DUO... Robert Reich, public policy professor at UC/Berkeley & former labor secretary under President Clinton will square off against the WSJ's Steve Moore.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

The Fed Needs to Stop

The Fed needs to stop cutting interest rates and halt the run on the dollar. They can do this by announcing a lengthy pause in their interest rate statement due out this Wednesday at 2:15 pm.

Over the past month or so, gold has dropped, and the dollar has stabilized. This is because investors sense that the Fed is finally coming to the end of their rate cutting. Another quarter-point cut later this week would be a bad idea.

Gold, oil, and food commodity prices have all exploded in recent months as the Fed has over-stimulated its easing polices. The real fed funds rate remains negative. And in a market-based bond model, the negative real fed funds rate remains far below the economy’s so–called natural rate. It’s the lowest since the spring of 2005. It’s no wonder there’s been a big run against the greenback.

Voters are irate over the higher cost for gas and food. Truck drivers are preparing to march on Washington, D.C. in a strike against soaring prices for diesel fuel. Meanwhile, politicians on both sides of the aisle are making goofy policy proposals like instituting a windfall profits tax (Hill-Bama) or declaring a summer gas tax holiday (McCain). Yes, of course we need a good energy policy with a broad portfolio of all energy sources. No question about it. But let’s be very clear: the Federal Reserve has played a lead role in creating this energy and food price debacle.

As one of the financial news services put it today, Fed chair Ben Bernanke needs to act more like his hard money predecessor Paul Volcker, in order to avoid becoming stagflationist Arthur Burns.

It’s time to stop.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Friday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS, ECONOMY, FED, DOLLAR & MORE...Our all-star panel of stock market and economic experts will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends, and developments affecting investors.

On board:

*Joe Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus
*Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors
*Steve Moore, senior economics writer at the Wall Street Journal
*Stefan Abrams, Bryden-Abrams Investment Management managing partner

ETHANOL & FOOD INFLATION...Syndicated columnist Deroy Murdock and Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy, will join Messrs. Battipaglia and Abrams with a look at the controversial biofuel.

WASHINGTON TO WALL STREET...Our money politics panel will debate all the latest hot-button issues including whether we're really in a recession, tax rebate checks and McCain & taxes.

On board:

*Walt Williams, economics professor at George Mason University
*Steve Moore, senior economics writer at the Wall Street Journal
*Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

K&C Quotables

Some notable quotes from last night's Kudlow & Company:

Fed Finally Gets It Right It all goes back to March 17th. Bear Stearns Monday. That’s when the world changed. That’s when the Fed figured out that it could solve the credit crisis by something other than cutting the funds rate. And so, ever since then, all of these different markets have gradually, more and more, come to realize that it’s “one and done” at this point, at the most. And that the Fed is going to start hiking again, as soon as October. The futures markets are now looking at three rate hikes out a year from now. That strengthens the dollar; it weakens gold; it weakens oil. It’s great for stocks because it means that the Fed is going to stop fueling the inflation machine. And that there’s confidence that the credit crisis has been mastered. This is just fantastic news.

-Don Luskin, Chief Investment Officer at Trend Macro

A Bullish Signal When you narrow risk premiums, stock markets soar. When you widen risk premiums, stock markets tank. We’ve had wider risk premiums, whether you use the junk bond spread, or some other spread. There’s a hundred ways to measure risk premiums. They have peaked in the last few weeks. They are beginning to narrow. Stock markets recognize it. The process is finally working.

-David Kotok, co-founder & CIO of Cumberland Advisors

Schadenfreude We’ve found out from Pennsylvania just how deep the divisions are in the Democratic Party. The media often talks about the divisions in the Republican Party, but we’ve got our nominee. That’s done. We’ve been united for some time. The Democrats have very serious divisions. They have race, gender, age, class divisions…you don’t just heal that. You don’t just heal that with a nice convention. You don’t just heal that by taking a certain position on an issue. I mean, these are very deep divisions in the Democratic Party that go back forty years to the riots of ‘68. It spells serious trouble for them in November.

-Jerry Bowyer, chief economist at Benchmark Financial Network

Stop the (Ethanol) Madness

Take a couple minutes to read NRO contributing editor Deroy Murdock's scathing rebuke of U.S ethanol policy. It's an excellent piece. Just dynamite. And it's loaded with a ton of great facts.

Here's a snippet:

To draw a phrase from the late, great William F. Buckley Jr.’s words as he founded National Review, someone must stand athwart the federal ethanol program yelling, “Stop!” The emergency brake should be pulled — NOW — before ethanol wreaks further havoc.

...Congress should abolish federal ethanol subsidies, mandates, and the 54-cent-per-gallon tariff on imports — including Brazil’s cheaper, cleaner, sugar-based ethanol. If scientists can develop ethanol that neither starves people nor rapes the Earth, splendid. However, this enterprise must not rest upon morally repugnant, ecologically counterproductive, economically devastating, government-ordered distortions.

It’s time for emergency legislation to repeal ethanol-market meddling. The federal program began as a sop to U.S. grain growers — arguably the most pampered and endlessly entitled people this side of the Saudi royal family. It has grown into a cancer on global food markets....


Click here for more.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

A Big Mac Attack

All this postmortem election stuff is getting boring. But the stock market appears to be feasting on a McCain victory in November against either Hillary or Obama – especially Obama. Market indexes are having a terrific rally right now. In fact, they have been rallying ever since late January, when McCain emerged as the Republican nominee.

Sure, Mac may occasionally bash business, but he does want to lower the corporate tax rate. This is very good. And he also wants to keep investment tax rates low. Also very good. It’s been good enough for a stock rally, which may be capitalizing a McCain victory into share prices. Premature? Perhaps. But it’s one way to read the market’s move.

Here’s another key point: the front-page of today’s Wall Street Journal hints at the end of Fed easing moves. Another plus in the bullish column. Take a look at the price of gold. It has cratered down below the $900 mark. It peaked at $1009, just over a month ago on March 18. Meanwhile, the dollar engineered its best rally today against the euro since 2004. So maybe the US peso is dollarizing itself on the hope that the Fed will stop easing.

Finally, the stock market rally, along with a healthy rise in long-term Treasury rates, may be signaling that the “non-recession” recession will give way to a much stronger second half economy. This scenario becomes increasingly likely if a rising dollar snuffs out spiking energy prices. I hope so. Because no matter how weak, and no matter how disjointed the Democrats may look right now, Big Mac is going to need all the help he can get come November.

Thursday Night Lineup: Special Washington Edition

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET from Washington tonight:

THE MARKETS, ECONOMY, FED, EARNINGS & MORE...Our stock market and economic all-stars will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends, and developments affecting investors.

On board:

*Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro
*Jack Gage, Forbes magazine associate editor
*Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist Deutsche Bank
*Jerry Bowyer, chief economist at Benchmark Financial Network
*Jim Awad, chairman of WP Stewart Asset Management
*David Kotok, co-founder & CIO of Cumberland Advisors Philadelphia
*Herb Greenberg, senior Marketwatch columnist/CNBC contributor

WASHINGTON TO WALL STREET...House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel (D-NY) will join me for a one-on-one interview in the studio.

Our stock market panel will weigh in with its money politics perspective following my interview with Rep. Rangel.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

K&C Quotables

Some notable quotes from last night's Kudlow & Company:

Farrell’s Pearls of Wisdom The market can stay irrational far longer than you and I can stay solvent.

If somebody stood up and said, we must defend the dollar, stop cutting interest rates, [then] the dollar rallies, oil comes down, and the market takes on another leg.

-Vince Farrell, managing director at Scotsman Capital Management

Rescuing the U.S. Peso The key for the dollar going forward is we’ve got to get the Fed to stop cutting rates. That’s the first thing. And then we need the [European Central Bank] to just cool it with all this ridiculous, hawkish talk. They need to either let the currency go, let it strengthen to 170, and then raise rates. Or shut up, and not raise rates, and just let [the euro] relax a little bit.

-Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets

Rising Food Prices I just spent several days with farmers in the midwest. The biggest cost for them? The reason food prices are rising? Diesel costs. These energy costs are skyrocketing. [When] farmers’ prices go up, prices go up at the store.

Kevin Kerr, president of Kerrtrade.com and editor of MarketWatch's Global Resources

Beware the Taxman I talked to two of my clients yesterday. These are top-drawer clients, seven, eight figure accounts. And they were both saying look, if Barack Obama or Hillary look like they’re going to get elected, we need to be selling. We need to be ahead of everybody else selling in anticipation of a capital gains [tax hike].

-Jim Lacamp, portfolio manager at RBC Dain Rauscher

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Wednesday Night Lineup: Special Washington Edition

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET from Washington tonight:

THE MARKETS & ECONOMY...Our stock market all-stars will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends, and developments affecting investors.

On board:

*Doug Kass, founder & president of Seabreeze Partners Mgmt
*Jim LaCamp, portfolio manager at RBC Dain Rauscher
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets
*Kevin Kerr, president of Kerrtrade.com and editor of MarketWatch's Global Resources

DOES HILLARY'S WIN BELONG TO MCCAIN?...Top pollster Scott Rasmussen from Rasmussen Reports will provide all the latest polls and perspective in our primary politics discussion.

MCCAIN & TAXES...Our money politics panel will debate McCain's proposed tax cuts and whether we can afford them.

On board:

*Douglas Holtz Eakin, top economic adviser to John McCain and former director of the Congressional Budget Office
*David Walker, former comptroller general and head of the Government Accountability Office
*Steve Moore, Wall Street Journal senior economics writer

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

K&C Quotables

Some notable quotes from last night's Kudlow & Company:

An Ideological Gulf [If Obama is the Democratic nominee] this is going to be – ideologically – the greatest distinction that we’ve had in candidates since the 1980 election when Jimmy Carter ran against Reagan. The Republicans have actually selected probably about the best candidate that they could in John McCain—in terms of his ability to reach out to the centrist-moderate wing of the party. The Democrats, on the other hand, have moved way to the left. I’m not sure that Barack Obama can win those Reagan Democrats.

-Steve Moore, senior economics writer and member of the Wall Street Journal editorial board

No Time to Turn Our Back There’s a fundamental problem in this country. I don’t think people understand two things that are important to us. One is, foreign markets are critically important to our future, for virtually every company. And second, we need foreign capital. This is not the time to be turning our back on the global economy. And also, the question is, if you want to renegotiate NAFTA, for instance, what are we prepared to put on the table? If it’s a negotiation, we’re going to have to give, if we want to get. What are we prepared to give? These kinds of questions really need to be addressed in a much more substantial way.

-Robert Hormats, Vice-Chairman of Goldman Sachs International

Where’s the Beef? It’s very hard to predict what the future behavior would be of a person who’s had no past record of actually initiating anything. But what we do know about Senator Obama is he has the most liberal voting record of anybody in the Senate. Therefore, we can observe that he will go along with any left-wing scheme that comes along. While he’s never had a policy initiative of his own, we could expect that if he were to win the White House, he would take the initiatives that came out of Congress – an increasingly more liberal and emboldened Congress – and you’d get many left-wing schemes coming out of the House and Senate to his desk, which he would sign, and embrace, and call his own. [Obama] is a fascinating person. It’s so hard for me to understand how a person who is so wholly devoid of any on-the-job, policy accomplishment can take the job with these kinds of responsibilities, having demonstrated none in his life.

-Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Special Tuesday Night Lineup - The Pennsylvania Primary

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS, ECONOMY & PA PRIMARY...Our all-star panel of stock market and economic experts will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends, and developments affecting investors. We'll also spend some time covering the developments in the presidential race.

On board:

*Vince Farrell, managing director, Scotsman Capital
*Don Luskin, chief investment officer, Trend Macro
*Quentin Hardy, Forbes Silicon Valley bureau chief
*Steve Moore, senior economic writer, Wall Street Journal
*Jared Bernstein, senior economist, Economic Policy Institute
*Bob Hormats, Goldman Sachs International vice-chairman

PA PRIMARY UPDATE...CNBC'S John Harwood will join us live from Philadelphia with an update.

WASHINGTON DEBATE...Squaring off will be former House Majority Leader Dick Armey and Keith Boykin, New York Times bestselling author and former Clinton White House aide

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Strong Dollar, Anyone?

Investors worried about the dollar, as I am, should really take a look at the recent London Daily Telegraph story written by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. He reports an interview with Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg premier and chair of Eurozone financiers who is also known as the EU’s “Mr. Euro.” The interview strongly hints of a G7 action to halt the collapse of the dollar and bring an end to commodity speculation by hedge funds.

According to the piece, Juncker met with President Bush in the White House at Bush’s request, just before the latest G7 meeting. The two men discussed the dangers of protectionism, and Juncker apparently warned Bush of the need for the U.S. to take steps to halt the dollar’s slide.

According to Evans-Pritchard, Juncker said, “I don’t have the impression that financial markets and other actors have correctly and entirely understood the message of the G7 meeting.” Juncker is referring to a more aggressive G7 policy statement about monitoring currency volatility. Recently, I have been writing of the need to make this even clearer, by referring to a policy of dollar appreciation. You may recall that a little over twenty years ago, the G7 clearly stated a policy of non-dollar appreciation at the 1985 Plaza Accord in New York.

I can’t help but wonder whether some kind of dollar rescue mission isn’t out there in the near-term. And I agree with Mr. Juncker that a dollar appreciation would halt speculation in energy, gold, and other commodities. As of this writing, oil’s up over a buck, trading at $118.50. Meanwhile, the euro registered another high against the dollar, finally breaking through the 1.60 barrier.

For the life of me, I can’t figure out why Sen. McCain isn’t making a big pitch for a strong-dollar policy, thereby separating himself from President Bush’s dollar-neglect. In our interview last week, I pressed Sen. McCain on this issue, but he’s not yet quite committed to monetary actions for the dollar, though he does in a general way want a strong dollar.

Incidentally, former Fed chair Paul Volcker — Mr. Hard Money himself — who endorsed Barack Obama back in February, recently said that the dollar is already in a crisis. Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Volcker persuaded Obama to come out for a strong-dollar policy? Obama could make a populist pitch to protect the purchasing power of the wages of all those “bitter” small-town folks who are clinging to guns and God in the hinterland.

A big hat tip and many thanks to my friend Jimmy Pethokoukis over at U.S. News & World Report for noticing that I keep raising the dollar as a potential key issue in this presidential race. Food and gas prices are soaring. Big increases in the consumer price index are undermining worker wages.

So here’s the question: Which candidate, if any, is going to claim the lead on strong-dollar policy?

Novak: “McCain, Portman, and Victory”

Bob Novak, the highly distinguished veteran columnist and author, told the American Spectator New York dinner group last night that John McCain will defeat Barack Obama in November’s election, although the Democrats will enhance their majorities in both the Senate and the House. Novak, who has covered elections for fifty years, speculated that McCain will pick former Ohio congressman Rob Portman (who also was President Bush’s special trade representative and OMB director) as his running mate, while Obama could choose former Sen. Sam Nunn as his.

On Portman, Novak said he’s young, will pass the conservative spell check, and can stand up in a debate. Our speaker also told us that the GOP has stumbled into the exact right candidate this year in McCain. Regarding McCain’s tax-cut proposals, Novak thinks they are real, and that cutting the corporate tax rate, as McCain has proposed, should be much more important to observers than the candidate’s occasional corporate and Wall Street bashing.

Novak also believes Obama’s gaffes about bitter small-town people who cling to guns and religion will be an absolute killer in the general election. So will the Jeremiah Wright business, and more generally Obama’s extreme, across-the-board, liberal-left positions.

The veteran journalist also responded emphatically to a question about media- and investment-driven pessimism that seems to permeate the airwaves today. He noted how much better off this country is today compared to the 1930s and 1970s. He observed that the Reagan supply-side revolution has created a vastly better economy than anything he has ever seen in his lifetime. Slowdowns come and go, but the underlying economy is strong.

It was a bravura performance from someone who has been a friend and mentor to me for three decades. Wonderful to see.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Monday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS, ECONOMY, EARNINGS & MORE...Our all-star panel of stock market experts will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends, and developments affecting investors.

On board:

*Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets
*Dennis Kneale, CNBC media and technology editor

$125 OIL IN THE CARDS?...John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at MF Global Ltd, will join the aforementioned guests with his take on what's behind the rising price of oil and what may lie ahead.

TOP POLLSTERS TALK PENNSYLVANIA & PRIMARY POLITICS...Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports and John Zogby, president of Zogby International, will offer their key insights and what the polls are revealing ahead of tomorrow's critical contest.

MONEY POLITICS...Squaring off this evening in our Washington to Wall Street segment will be former Clinton labor secretary Robert Reich and economist Jerry Bowyer.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

K&C Quotables

Some notable quotes from Friday night's Kudlow & Company:

Good News for the Greenback? We’ve had a string of Fed governors finally come out and say that they’re uncomfortable with the level of inflation. When you get a plethora of these guys out there all saying the same thing, they’re sending a strong message. They’re saying we’re uncomfortable, and we may not give the market that extra 25 basis points at the end of the month—because we are uncomfortable with [inflation]. So that helped the dollar.
-Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets

Skousen Senses Opportunity It’s possible that we’re not out of this recession. However, [remember] Fed policy. Don’t fight the Fed. Anybody who is fighting the Fed right now – in cash, T-bills at a little bit over 1 percent – why would anyone be in cash at this point? These are tremendous opportunities. This is the time to get into the market. It’s all about globalization. Forget the U.S. economy, it’s globalization. Things have changed. Things have changed in the last ten to twenty years. The global economy is far more important. So when the U.S. catches a cold, the world does not catch pneumonia.
-Mark Skousen, financial economist & author of EconoPower

Obama & Capital Gains If Obama gets in, I think it’s a catastrophe—if he puts through the policies he’s saying. [His exchange with ABC’s Charlie Gibson on taxing capital gains] was one of the most ridiculous give-and-takes I have ever seen. It was just silly beyond belief. [Obama] almost accepted it, and then he says he wants to raise taxes on capital gains, “cause it’s fair” – and not because it will help people, not because it will provide more revenues. It’s ridiculous what he said. [Obama economic advisor] Austan Goolsbee should be priming him on this stuff. It just doesn’t make any sense.
-Arthur Laffer, supply-side economist & president of Laffer Associates

Reich Reaches Hillary Tipping Point I guess I just reached the tipping point this week, in terms of negative mudslinging by the Clinton camp. [It’s] bringing both [candidates] down. This is the old politics… Given the scale of the problems the nation now faces…this kind of petty mudslinging has got to stop. I just couldn’t stand it [anymore]…Obviously, I was not going to endorse anybody, because I’ve know the Clintons for decades. It just seemed to be inappropriate to endorse anybody. But I reached a tipping point this week…I’m sick and tired of it. I’m fed up.
-Robert Reich, former Clinton labor secretary

Friday, April 18, 2008

Friday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS & ECONOMY...Our all-star panel of stock market and economic experts will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends, and developments affecting investors.

Topics will include the recession story - Is the worst behind us?...Earnings...Caterpillar...Citigroup, etc...Inflation...Libor...The Dollar...and more.

On board:

*Art Laffer, economist, president of Laffer Associates
*Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets
*Stefan Abrams, Bryden-Abrams Investment Management managing partner
*Kevin Kerr, president of Kerrtrade.com and editor of MarketWatch's Global Resources
*Mark Skousen, financial economist, author, professor and editor of Forecasts & Strategies

THE DYNAMIC DUO TACKLES WASHINGTON & WALL STREET...Reich & Moore will discuss all the latest money politics issues including former Clinton labor secretary Reich's endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama earlier today.

On board:

*Robert Reich, former Clinton labor secretary, professor of public policy at UCal Berkeley, and "Supercapitalism" author
*Steve Moore, senior economic writer & member of the Wall Street Journal editorial board

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Why Not Blame Obama?

The media favorite has a very poor grasp of basic economic principles.

It’s rather amusing watching the liberal media launch a full-scale attack on George Stephanopoulos and Charles Gibson, with General Tom Shales of the Washington Post leading the charge. ABC’s Stephanopoulos and Gibson had the audacity to ask Obama some tough questions during the Democratic debate Tuesday night. Challenge Obama with well-informed questions on tax policy and politics? Wound the media favorite? How dare they?

The fallout is fascinating. With members of the mainstream liberal media lunging at each others throats, it’s kind of like watching Hillary and Obama go at it.

But here’s the deal: During the debate, Obama bungled his answers on tax policy, big time. Period. End of sentence. End of story. To my liberal friends in the media, all I can say is: Get over it. Your guy has a very poor grasp of basic economic principles.

First off, you don’t raise taxes during a recession. That’s a no-brainer. Second, doubling the capital-gains tax rate will affect Americans up and down the income ladder, not just rich hedge-fund managers. In addition, capital-gains tax cuts are self-financing, and they stimulate jobs and the economy. You want to raise budget revenues and spark economic growth? Cut the cap-gains tax rate. That’s what history shows.

The Wall Street Journal’s Steve Moore points out that in 2005, almost half of all tax returns reporting capital gains came from households with incomes under $50,000, while more than three-quarters came from households earning less than $100,000.

Obama also proposed uncapping the payroll tax, another blunder that will hit people up and down the income ladder. While Obama pledges tax hikes only for folks earning more that $200,000 a year, his tax hike on payrolls would actually slam middle-income earners. The cap on wages subject to the payroll tax is presently $102,000. By eliminating that cap Obama will be soaking veteran firemen, cops, teachers, and health-service workers, along with a variety of other occupations.

In fact, in America’s largest cities, a firefighter married to a school teacher can earn close to $200,000 filing jointly. So not only will each spouse separately pay more for Social Security and health care under Obama’s plan, together they’ll also be slammed by Obama’s cap-gains tax increase.

This is more than just a failure to understand the Laffer curve. It’s another cultural misstep by Obama. I can’t help but wonder if the senator knows any cops or firemen. His appeal is to well-educated latte liberals. That remark about middle-income folks having turned to God, faith, and guns because of economic setbacks? Not only was it ill-advised, it illustrates the wide cultural chasm that exists between the candidate and the rest of America.

In effect, Obama’s economics are bad and his social circle is very limited. This is one of the many reasons why a quarter of the Hillary Democrats are telling pollsters they’ll likely move to John McCain in the general election.

Obama’s real agenda is far-liberal left. It’s an ideology that places income redistribution above economic growth. That’s his real message. And it’s the same one that sunk Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry. Bill Clinton? He was a growth Democrat. So he won twice. But Obama is aligning himself with the Democratic losers. And that will make him a loser as well.

The Gallup poll taken after the Democratic debate reveals that Hillary’s pit-bull routine may have worked. We’ll learn more on that front come Tuesday when Pennsylvanians head to the voting booths. But that’s a different issue. What I’m saying is that liberals need to quit blaming Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos for Obama’s shortcomings. Instead, they need to blame Obama for failing to grasp how tax penalties on upward mobility will hurt the very people he thinks he’s going to help.

Jack Kemp has effectively made the point that African American communities desperately need capital in order to create new businesses and jobs. Yet as Obama takes the capital out of capitalism, all those who are not rich will be hurt when the rich folks with capital have less of it — after tax — to invest in those new businesses and new jobs.

That’s exactly why wealth-redistribution plans always backfire. Robbing Peter to pay Paul is a surefire economic loser. So is putting government in charge of the economy, which is what Mr. Obama is proselytizing.

This marks the third mistake for the Illinois senator. Not only does he not understand economics; not only is he set apart from middle-class values and beliefs; he apparently hasn’t read much history either.

Did someone say inexperience?

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Thursday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS & ECONOMY...Our all-star panel of stock market and economic experts will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends, and developments affecting investors.

Topics will include whether the market established a Bear Stearns Bottom...Is the worst over for Goldilocks?...An Eye on Earnings, Google, etc...Inflation...The Dollar...and more.

On board:

*Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist Deutsche Bank
*Jim Awad, chairman of WP Stewart Asset Management
*Michael Pento, Delta Global Advisors, senior market strategist
*Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist for Strategas Research Partners

WASHINGTON TO WALL STREET...Our money politics panel will sift through all the latest news and events.

Topics will include Weird Economics at last night's Hill-Bama Debate...Obama's Cap Gains Bomb -- capitalism without capital?...Is Hillary better for Business?...Protectionism...Elections Making Foreign Firms Jumpy...Hedge Funds Eyeing Student Loans and more.

On board:

*Jimmy Pethokoukis, senior writer at U.S. News & World Report
*Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute
*Keith Boykin, New York Times bestselling author and former Clinton White House aide
*Steve Moore, senior economic writer & member of the Wall Street Journal editorial board

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Gibson Hammers Hill-Bama on Cap Gains

ABC's Charlie Gibson did a heck of a job advancing the supply-side ball during last night's Democratic debate. Gibson laid out clear evidence showing that whenever the capital gains rate has been cut in the past 20 years, revenues have shot up, while the one time the rate was raised - surprise, surprise - revenues headed south. Gibson then confronted Obama with his promise to essentially double the capital gains rate if he were elected president.

Obama didn't budge. The reality that a lower cap gains rate brings in more government tax revenue didn’t faze him one bit. Apparently, nor does the fact that raising the cap gains rate diminishes jobs, enervates capital formation, and leads to lousy economic growth. Obama's response and sole concern remains sticking it to rich people, like hedge fund managers.

Someone ought to point out to Sen. Obama that of the 8.5 million tax filers who declared capital gains in 2005, 79 percent had incomes under $100,000. 79 percent! The unfortunate fact is that Wall Street won't be the only one hard hit by Obama's populism, Main Street would be hit even harder.

***FYI: John Podhoretz thinks Charlie Gibson turned into yours truly...

Attention, Permabears

My old friend, Stefan Abrams, sent me the following email earlier this morning. Stefan is a managing partner at Bryden-Abrams Investment Management and a regular guest on Kudlow & Company. He's also a savvy Wall Street veteran who knows a thing or two about the markets...

----- Original Message -----
From: Stefan Abrams
To: Lawrence Kudlow
Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2008 10:57 AM
Subject: Permabears

As large, multinational industrials come through with good first quarter results and encouraging guidance going forward; as stocks that miss no longer get crushed, as the market shakes off bad macro news, most of which is redundant, as the rates of contraction in various sectors begin to level off, as the stimulus package approaches, as the massive amount of cash on the sidelines starts bargain hunting, etc.,etc., your cast of permabears needs to find some new reasons to ignore this emerging bottom for equities. All the best, Stefan

"Bull Moose McCain Gores Wall Street"

My good buddy Jimmy Pethokoukis over at U.S. News & World Report has a great little blog today discussing the debate over whether John McCain truly is following down the Gipper's path.

It's worth checking out:
Some Capital Commerce readers took offense at my post yesterday that highlighted Reaganesque aspects of the economic agenda that John McCain outlined. In particular, they pointed out that President Reagan never harangued business the way McCain did in that speech. (To be fair to me, I pointed out that the speech was a mix of Reagan, Mike Huckabee, and Teddy Roosevelt.) It was probably this portion that bugged them, the part of the speech where McCain named names:

Click here to continue reading.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Wednesday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

IN-DEPTH: THE STOCK MARKET, ECONOMY, EARNINGS, COMMODITIES, DOLLAR, INFLATION & MORE...Our stock market and economic all-stars will discuss and debate all of the news, trends, and developments affecting investors.

On board:

*Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets
*Jerry Bowyer, chief economist at Benchmark Financial Network
*John Browne, senior market strategist at Euro Pacific Capital
*Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial Services
*Herb Greenberg, senior Marketwatch columnist/CNBC contributor

WASHINGTON TO WALL STREET...Greg Valliere, Washington strategist at Stanford Policy Research, will join Messrs. Busch, Bowyer and Greenberg in a look at all of the latest money politics issues.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

K&C Quotables

Here are a few notable guest comments from last night’s show in response to my interview with Republican presidential candidate John McCain. Incidentally, one area in particular where McCain has it absolutely right is lowering corporate tax rates. This would work wonders for U.S. economic growth. It would rehabilitate the ailing dollar and reduce inflation. Mac is right on the money here.

Restoring King Dollar I think we heard, once again, a lot of talk about spending cuts and balanced budgets—and a lot of discomfort in talking about tax decreases. So you know, I’ll take a tax cut wherever I can get it. I think the problem there is [McCain] is talking about suspending the gas tax, but in fact, what he should be talking about is a stronger dollar. That would actually drive down the oil price and gasoline prices a lot more…I think [the lack of a discussion on the dollar] is a big shame. One of these candidates is going to wake up to the fact that that’s the number one populist issue—strengthening the dollar. It would be a big vote getter. A weak dollar is bad for the middle classes.
-John Tamny, editor of RealClearMarkets & senior economist with H.C. Wainwright Economics.

Channeling the Gipper You made the point that there was this kind of combination of TR and Ronald Reagan in John McCain’s rhetoric. I agree with that. I really loved his line that sounded so much like the Gipper when [McCain] said the problem in Washington is not that we don’t have enough revenue, it’s that we spend too much. As you know Larry, that’s right out of the Gipper’s playbook. The other thing I really liked about this interview, and the reason I think John McCain is going to win this race, is he’s genuine. You listen to Obama and Hillary—Hillary Clinton is now a Bible-thumpin’, gun-totin’ Democrat—they just seem artificial. John McCain is the real deal. I don’t always agree with him, but I think he’s genuine.
-Steve Moore, Wall Street Journal senior economics writer & editorial board member

McCain Targets Cayne I think [Bear Stearns CEO] Jimmy Cayne has suffered enough. He went from $170 a share. He sold at $11. Anybody else could have sold at $11. I don’t know that he’s the proper whipping boy here. [But] I agree with a lot of the sentiment of Senator McCain on these exorbitant pay packages. I do like the idea of a non-binding “say-on-pay.” But non-binding. And I don’t want the government involved in it at all. But I think it's probably a poor example [for Sen. McCain] to take Jimmy Cayne.
-Vince Farrell, managing director at Scotsman Capital Management

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Transcript: The McCain Interview

What follows is the transcript of my conversation earlier today with Sen. John McCain.

LARRY KUDLOW, host:

Senator John McCain, welcome back to KUDLOW & COMPANY, sir.

Senator JOHN McCAIN: Thank you, Larry. It's nice to be back.

KUDLOW: Let me begin, in your speech today, and also in recent speeches, you're really blasting corporate greed and reckless corporate conduct. It sounds a little bit like the business attacks by Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. Can you tell us, what do you mean by these criticisms? What are you driving at?

Sen. McCAIN: I'm driving at the people who get compensation which is not approved of by the stockholders, even a nonbinding fashion. I'm talking about people like Mr. Cayne, who the day--right around the time the government took over Bear Stearns--or bailed out, excuse me, bail--Bear Stearns--who went to the market and got $11 a share rather than $10 a share. I'm talking about people that when their corporation has losses, that they are rewarded with exorbitantly high pay packages. And it gives Wall Street a bad name, Larry. And that's--and that's pure and simple. I do not believe in government intervention, I do not believe in government control, I do not believe that. But I do believe we should take steps to increase transparency and also
shareholder input into the compensation of CEOs. After all, that's who the CEOs work for. And I also think CEOs and chairmen should have--be different people.

KUDLOW: OK. Well, do you support the say on pay bill? That's a key point. And would you make that mandatory?

Sen. McCAIN: In a nonbinding. I would--I believe in say on pay. I believe that Aflac is--supposedly on May 5th they're going to vote on that. I don't think that stock--shareholders should be prevented from voicing their opinion on it, but I do not believe it should be binding. I think nonbinding is just fine. I think that sends enough of a signal to corporate executives.

KUDLOW: When you are criticizing these corporations, I mean, there's 140 million Americans work for corporations, in rough numbers. Companies are the ones who create jobs in America, they're the ones who really generate the family incomes, and of course companies need capital investment. Do you ever worry that you're sending a very tough anti-business message to the firms, to the work force and to investors?

Sen. McCAIN: Larry, in all due respect, don't you think that when corporate executives take exorbitant pay packages that are not justified by the--by the performance of the corporations that they have stewardship of and millions of--and 250,000 Americans in the last short period of time have lost their jobs, that that gives corporate America a bad name and then increases the
influence of those who are basically anti-business? Don't you think that is also one of the--one of the spillovers here? We expect corporate America to be transparent, honest, accountable, and I don't care how much executive compensation is as long as it's justified by corporate performance. And you know and I know there are many of them that that's not the case. Not the majority, but there's enough of them that it gives Wall Street and corporate America a bad name, the strength and basis of America's economy. You and I are not in that much disagreement. But just like there are bad politicians that--who need to be punished, there are bad corporate executives and corporate greed that has to be checked, as well.

KUDLOW: Why? In the case of James Cayne--I mean, I don't want to get too deep into this...

Sen. McCAIN: Yeah.

KUDLOW: ...because neither of us are securities analysts.

Sen. McCAIN: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

KUDLOW: But he didn't do anything that broke the law. He worked there for 40 years.

Sen. McCAIN: Of course not.

KUDLOW: He collected stock over that whole period of time. And you yourself supported the JPMorgan/Bear Stearns deal. So I'm not sure where the issue is here, because he didn't do anything illegal.

Sen. McCAIN: Yeah. Well, when a politician gets corporate contributions and then writes an earmark for that corporation, which is not competed or any other virtue that I know of, that's not illegal, either. OK? But it ain't right. I'm saying that there are corporate executives--I'm sorry to waste our--I mean, to spend so much of our time together on this particular issue,
because we're not that much in disagreement. I want accountability and transparency, and I know that you do, too. And there are bad corporate heads just as there have been bad politicians and there have been bad everything, unfortunately, in America. And transparency and accountability to shareholders is the best way to check it. And you and I are not in that much
of disagreement of it.

KUDLOW: Yeah.

Sen. McCAIN: But I cringe when I hear--when I hear my constituents saying, `Wait, I just lost my job and that corporate CEO just cashed in X,' OK?

KUDLOW: All right. So as someone once said, let us move on, sir.

Recently...

Sen. McCAIN: OK, sure.

KUDLOW: Recently, you've talked--you've said pretty clearly that the US economy is in recession. In terms of your speech today, can you tick off your major recovery points?

Sen. McCAIN: Bring spending, obviously, under control. That is very obvious. Have a balanced budget. Reduce corporate taxes from 35 to 25. Allow expensing in the first year of new equipment. Job retraining and education programs that work, that give us qualified workers into the work force. Let's have a gas tax holiday and maybe just give everyday Americans some relief this summer. Become--make it a national priority to--for energy independence. We're sending, as you know, $400 billion a year, half of our trade deficit, to countries that don't like us very much, and some of that money ends up in the hands of terrorist organizations. We--spending and spending and spending. In other words, we need to have a year pause, a year pause on discretionary spending, except for veterans and defense. And let's scrutinize every agency of government. You could--and by the way, how do you pay for it? Just the $35 billion in pork barrel projects that parents sign--the president signed into law the last two years, plus the 60 billion in pork barrel projects that are already in the pipeline. And let's get the spending under control so that we can give Americans real and meaningful tax relief, which they need, because--and we cannot make the tax--present tax cuts--we can't repeal the present tax cuts and we have to take a--many other measures. But I would argue with you that if we're going to really restore our confidence and trust, we cannot increase the tax burden on American families and businesses. It is not taxes that are insufficient, it's spending that's out of control. And one of the areas I would go after first and hardest is defense acquisition.

KUDLOW: On the corporate tax--on the corporate tax cut...

Sen. McCAIN: Yeah.

KUDLOW: ...which you've talked about pretty much all year, in order to help finance it, you mention you want to close some loopholes in corporate welfare. Would you raise the...(unintelligible)...interest tax on buyout funds and private partnerships as a means of financing your reduction in the corporate tax rate overall?

Sen. McCAIN: No. I would--no. But I'll tell you what, I would eliminate ethanol subsidies. I would eliminate the tariff on imported ethanol. I think our market is being very badly distorted as far as food prices are concerned. I know you know food prices skyrocketed 17 percent in a very short period of time. That's because we're distorting the market. I'm for biofuels, I'm for
all that stuff, but let's let the market play. Let's not subsidize ethanol or any other alternate form of energy. Let's go ahead and take away the imports. Let's eliminate sugar protection. My God, it's amazing, still, the power of some of the sections of agriculture in America. And let's eliminate loopholes that are specially targeted, rifle-shotted to specific industries and--both agriculture and business, and let's let them all compete.

KUDLOW: Come back to this summer gas tax holiday that you unveiled in your speech today. It's a pretty interesting point. I don't think anybody's talked about anything like that. Let me just ask you, though, you've been very tough on the issue of carbon emissions, for example. Now, if you waive the gas tax...

Sen. McCAIN: Yeah.

KUDLOW: ...for motorists, isn't that going to actually spur gasoline consumption and increase carbon emissions?

Sen. McCAIN: Look, I'd love to tell you that would happen. We're talking about 18 cents a gallon for regular fuel and 24 percent--24 cents for diesel. I'm not sure that it stimulates it. I think it eases the burden. The people that drive the furthest in America are the lowest income people. You spent enough time in Washington, DC, to know that the wealthiest live in Georgetown and can almost walk to work; the least wealthy live the furthest away and drive many, many miles. I think that there--that it is a disproportionate burden on low income Americans that don't have access to mass transportation, that have to go a long way to work. But I'd like to see Americans get some relief this summer and maybe feel a little better. That's--and I think it'd be a nice thing to do, a good thing to do, including suspending further purchases of oil--of gas and oil for--of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

KUDLOW: Well, some people have looked at this proposal this morning, which I said is a novel proposal, and they said, `Well, OK, but...'

Sen. McCAIN: Mm-hmm.

KUDLOW: `...isn't this going to provide, ultimately, more revenues for Saudi Arabia and OPEC, which is the reverse of what you have argued for in the past?'

Sen. McCAIN: No, I don't--look, I do not believe that we can continue our efforts to alternate fuels and alternate energy sources, including nuclear, which is vital, and still give Americans a little bit of relief and let them afford a vacation this summer. So all I can tell you is I'd like to give Americans some relief and it will have little or no impact of any kind on our overall effort that we must mount to become energy independent, and that has to do with a lot of alternate energy, again, and I emphasize nuclear.

KUDLOW: All right. A month ago on the housing and the mortgage issue, you gave a strong speech and you said one of your core principles--it is not the duty of government to bail out and reward those who act irresponsibly.

Sen. McCAIN: Yep.

KUDLOW: Last week in Brooklyn, New York, you unveiled your home plan...

Sen. McCAIN: Mm-hmm.

KUDLOW: ...which is essentially a widespread FHA assistance program not unlike what Obama and Hillary are saying. Why the switch?

Sen. McCAIN: Well, actually, I said that we should not reward people who have--who have acted in an unscrupulous fashion, and this doesn't--this is targeted at as many as 400,000 homeowners who had a legitimate home mortgage, they--it's their primary residence and all the--all of a sudden they find themselves unable to make the payments. These people are not the ones I was talking about then. There has been no switch. I said at that time I wanted to help people who need the help, who are deserving of it. And these people are deserving of it, who are in their primary residences, who are eligible to have a mortgage that they can afford. And it's in the lender's interest as well as the borrower's interest; otherwise, that home becomes vacant. And in the event--by the way, in the event of sale of that home, over time with appreciation, one third would go to the lender, one third to the FHA and one third to the homeowner. So I think it's a--it's a very badly needed relief to honest, legitimate, home-owning Americans who find themselves trapped in this terrible problem of owning--of realizing--not being able to realize the
American dream.

KUDLOW: Does your version of this differ from the Democratic version?

Sen. McCAIN: I haven't read their version, but from what I understand theirs is very massive and very expensive. But I haven't read theirs.

KUDLOW: Would you consider, by the way, rolling back the Community Reinvestment Act, which a lot of people say triggered this, mandating banks and other lenders to make substandard loans in the first place, and the creator of the subprime mortgages back in the middle '90s? Is it time to take a look at the Community Reinvestment Act?

Sen. McCAIN: Absolutely, Larry. There were people who predicted that the Community Reinvestment Act might lead to reckless and unsound lending practices just to sort of fill a--you know, a amount of--I don't like to use the word "quota," but certain percentages of a--of a home--of the bank's lending practices. Yes, it has to be re-examined, it has to be judged by its
effect, and we need to find out how this particular system affected the overall insolvency of the subprime lending issue. And I think it--I'm not saying it needs to be repealed, but it certainly needs to be re-examined and what its effects have been. And we'll be able to figure that out.

KUDLOW: Just one last one, sir. This morning's wholesale inflation report for the month of March, headline inflation, 7 percent year on year. Consumer prices, as you know, up 4 percent, probably on the way to 5 percent. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker the other day in New York said we are in a dollar crisis. Would you support or would you recommend a Fed/Treasury/G7 action to defend the dollar and to strengthen the dollar as a way of holding down these inflationary pressures?

Sen. McCAIN: I certainly would give it every consideration, but you and I both know that a weak dollar is a symptom of fundamental problems, such as our trade deficit, half of it being accounted for by our need to import foreign oil, our debt to the--to the Chinese, the spending practices--our continuing burgeoning out of control behavior in Washington which then has given us an unsound economy, reflected in the weakening dollar. The best way we can--in my view, to strengthen the dollar over time, let's have free trade, let's exchange goods and services with every nation in the world, let's have--reduce our deficit, let's lower taxes, let's give the American people a sound basis for economy and hope and optimism for the future. And I'm confident--I am confident that the fundamentals of our economy are strong and we will recover and America will be stronger over time. But right now, we are facing very serious challenges. I see you talk about them every single day.

KUDLOW: Senator John McCain, thank you, sir, for coming back on KUDLOW & COMPANY. We appreciate it very much.

Sen. McCAIN: Thank you, Larry.

Tuesday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS, ECONOMY & MCCAIN...Our all-star market panel will weigh in on all the latest stock market and economic news. We'll also take a look at Sen. McCain's economic speech proposals from earlier today and our interview shortly afterwards.

On board:

*Joe Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Quentin Hardy, Forbes Silicon Valley Bureau Chief
*Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist Deutsche Bank

THE MCCAIN INTERVIEW...The Republican presidential nominee and I sat down earlier today to discuss a number of economic subjects including CEO pay, the dollar, and his "gas tax holiday" proposal.

MONEY POLITICS...Our Washington to Wall Street panel will discuss and debate my interview with Sen. McCain in addition to other primary politics issues.

On board:

*Steve Moore, Wall Street Journal senior economics writer & editorial board member
*John Tamny, editor of RealClearMarkets, senior economist with H.C. Wainwright Economics, NRO columnist
*Quentin Hardy,Forbes Silicon Valley Bureau Chief

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Tax Day...

Top tax reform expert Dan Mitchell from the Center for Freedom and Prosperity just forwarded me the following video. He explains why either a flat tax or sales tax would be a better approach than our current system.

My Interview with McCain

I just wrapped up a lengthy interview with Republican presidential nominee John McCain. We spent some time discussing his recent statements on corporate greed and excessive CEO pay. It was a very lively debate. I asked Sen. McCain if he doesn’t sound a lot like Hillary and Obama on all this stuff.

We also talked at length about his new economic proposals announced in his speech earlier today. We covered his thoughts on fighting off recession and, in particular, his new idea to have a summer holiday for federal gas taxes. McCain’s “gas-tax holiday'' would eliminate the 18.4 cents-per-gallon federal tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day this year.

Sen. McCain had some very interesting comments on the sagging dollar and rising inflation, too. I also asked him why he switched his view on the FHA bailout.

You can catch the whole interview this evening on Kudlow & Company (7 p.m. EST on CNBC).

Monday, April 14, 2008

Monday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

SAGGING DOLLAR & SURGING COMMODITIES...Our all-star panel of experts will weigh in with their thoughts on the news, trends, and developments affecting the stock market and economy.

On board:

*Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets
*Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.
*Dennis Kneale, CNBC media and technology editor
*Steve Moore, senior economics writer, Wall Street Journal
*Kevin Kerr,president of Kerrtrade.com and editor of MarketWatch's Global Resources

THE MARKETS...Our market guests will discuss and debate all the latest market news including possible deals between Delta & Northwest and Circuit City & Blockbuster.

On board:

*Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times reporter
*Rob Cox, U.S. editor, Breakingviews.com
*Dennis Kneale, CNBC media and technology editor
*Herb Greenberg, senior Marketwatch columnist/CNBC contributor

PRIMARY POLITICS: THE POLLS...Joining us with a look at what the latest numbers are saying are Rasmussen Report's Scott Rasmussen, and Dick Bennett, president of the American Research Group.

PRIMARY POLITICS: DEBATE...Squaring off this evening on McCain, Hillary, and Obama are The Wall Street Journal's Steve Moore, and Keith Boykin, New York Times bestselling author and former Clinton White House aide.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

So the Big Boys Are Finally Focusing on the Dollar

The Fed, the Treasury, and the G7 may have discovered that the U.S. peso (a.k.a. “the dollar”) has been falling and world inflation is rising.

According to the official statement of the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors: “since our last meeting, there have been at times sharp fluctuations in major currencies, and we are concerned about their possible implications for economic and financial stability. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate.”

Okay, so the big boys are finally focused on the sinking greenback and the resulting worldwide inflation pressure. But what are they going to do about it? My sources tell me that the G7 is not yet ready to put their money where their mouth is. In other words, no dollar-buying — at least not yet.

The statement itself (which is more aggressive than recent statements on currencies) is intended as a warning to global currency traders to stop their non-stop dollar shorting. The dollar index is off nearly 1 percent this morning. Traders may be testing the Treasury and the G7 with more dollar sales. Treasury sources tell me that European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet is not ready to help with a dollar-support operation. And with the euro target rate at 4 percent, compared to the Fed’s 2.25 percent, the Treasury believes it will be tough to support the dollar at this point.

If the Fed does not lower its target rate at the next Fed meeting on April 30, that would signal dollar-support. But money markets are still pricing in two more quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed. So I think the G7 currency statement could be viewed as a first step to a dollar-stabilization action, but it’s still very iffy to conclude anything else.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Friday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE GE PROFITS PICTURE, MSFT-YAHOO! DEAL, & TODAY'S ECONOMIC STATS...Our stock market panel will discuss and debate these topics and more.

On board:

*Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times reporter
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Joe Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus
*Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro
*Stefan Abrams, Bryden-Abrams Investment Management managing partner

THE G7, GLOBAL INFLATION, YUAN & GREENBACK, & RECESSION...Our panel of economic experts will weigh in with their perspective on all the latest developments.

On board:

*Bob Hormats, Goldman Sachs International vice-chairman
*Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist Deutsche Bank
*John Taylor, Stanford University economics professor & former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs

FINANCIAL EARNINGS WATCH, MONEY POLITICS & MORE...Our Washington to Wall Street panel will lend its insight.

On board:

*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro
*Joe Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus
*Mark Skousen, financial economist, author, professor and editor of Forecasts & Strategies

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

K&C Quotables

Some notable quotes from last night's Kudlow & Company:

The More Dems Change, the More They Stay the Same My fear is that these people really are headed down the wrong path—Hillary, Obama, Congress, the governors, and the legislatures—they really want to repudiate Reagannomics and supply-side economics. They want to try a new brand of economics, which pays people not to work, and taxes them if they do work. They want to tax rich people and give the money to poor people—and hope there are more rich people, which is just silly. They don’t like stores that sell high quality products at low cost. They want to make sure that people sell it to us at the highest prices possible, so we can get more jobs here. It’s crazy stuff.
-Arthur Laffer, former Reagan economic advisor & chairman of Laffer Associates

Hey, Mr. Taxman! If you take 2005, for example, 8.5 million tax filers declared capital gains. Of those 8.5 million, 79 percent had incomes of under $100,000. Now to a lot of people, $100,000 is a lot of money. But it’s not the province of the rich. So [Democrats] are so off base in saying they’re going to raise taxes on the rich. They’re nuts. [They are taxing] the basic core of America—some guy selling a small business, some guy monetizing his life’s work. He has a capital gain that is not indexed to inflation. And 80 percent of [these tax filers] have incomes of less than $100,000. [Democrats] are completely misguided in what they’re doing. Low taxes stimulate economic growth, I don’t care what [Democrats] say.
-Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital

Are Hank and Ben Gonna Address Inflation?

G7 finance ministers are meeting in Washington this weekend to discuss the sub-prime credit mess and ways to coordinate measures aimed at backstopping the world financial system against various credit strains and systemic risks. All that is well and good. But are any of these financial bigwigs paying attention to the rise in global inflation?

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal highlighted this story on its front page. Former Fed chief Paul Volcker expressed worry about rising prices earlier this week. Mr. Volcker — probably the hardest-money American central banker in the 20th century — strongly (and rightfully) criticized the chronic weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Today, the latest print on import prices from March added further fuel to the fire. It revealed an eye-popping 2.8 percent monthly jump, and a knee-knocking 14.8 percent bulge over the past 12 months. Yikes is that bad news. It’s one of the reasons why consumer purchasing power is declining and corporate profits are falling. Even when you exclude fuels the yearly change is still 5 percent — a harbinger of higher consumer prices at home.

A story in today’s Wall Street Journal notes that China has appreciated its yuan currency by roughly 20 percent, in order fight off rising inflation pressures. Across the pond, Jean-Claude Trichet and the Europeans have appreciated the euro to hold down the global inflation surge and its impact.

So I’m wondering whether Treasury man Hank Paulson and Fed head Ben Bernanke are thinking about, or talking about, the U.S. inflation story at this G7 meeting. I’m wondering whether they are considering ways and means to appreciate the U.S. peso, and perhaps even begin to turn it back into the U.S. dollar.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Thursday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS...Our all-star market panel will discuss and debate all the latest stock market and economic news and developments.

On board:

*Quentin Hardy, Forbes Silicon Valley Bureau Chief
*Art Laffer, economist, president of Laffer Associates
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Jimmy Pethokoukis, senior writer at U.S. News & World Report

MCCAIN'S ECONOMIC SPEECH...Douglas Holtz-Eakin, economic adviser to John McCain and former director of the Congressional Budget Office will lend his thoughts and perspective.

The market panel will return following our interview with Mr. Holtz-Eakin.

WASHINGTON TO WALL STREET...Our money politics panel will debate all the latest news including the Democrats' attack on free trade, the presidential candidates, and taxes.

On board:

*Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), House Ways and Means Chairman
*Steve Moore, senior economics writer & member of The Wall Street Journal editorial board
*Robert Reich, former Clinton labor secretary, professor of public policy at UCal Berkeley, and "Supercapitalism" author

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

K&C Quotables

Some notable quotes from last night’s Kudlow & Company:

Dems Dissing Free Trade [Trade protectionism] is one of the biggest risks to our economy out there…Look around the world. What is wrong with our government? If you look at what other governments are doing, they’re fighting over each other to see who can sign trade agreements. And we’re taking the ones that we have, we want to redo them, we don’t want to do the one with Colombia. Do we not want to participate in the global economy? Do we want to go into an isolationist economy that’s never ever worked for anybody? I don’t understand it. It’s just populism politics. It’s preying on the uneducated. I think it’s a very big risk to the economy.
RBC Dain Rauscher portfolio manager Jim Lacamp

The Lone Star State’s Goldilocks Economy It didn’t happen by accident. We made some decisions back in 2003. We cut back on government spending. We smoothed up our regulatory process. We passed the most sweeping tort reform in the nation. And we continue to invest in our public schools. So, government can’t create jobs, but what government can do is create a climate for the private sector to have job growth…and in Texas we’ve done just that. We’ve created a climate where people know that they can come, they can risk their capital, and have a good chance of seeing a good return on investment. And that’s exactly what the last five years have seen in Texas.
-Texas Republican Governor Rick Perry on his state’s economic strength amidst a national slowdown

Giving Shareholders a Say on CEO Pay I believe our company works on the premise of pay for performance. And as long as I’m performing, I hope that I will stay at the top end of the range. And I think that’s the way you want it to be. Now, I think where most shareholders become upset, is where you aren’t performing, and you’re getting paid a lot of money. And under our system [of giving shareholders a “say on pay”], that just won’t happen.
Dan Amos, Aflac chairman & CEO

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Free-Trade Schadenfreude

I feel sorry for Mark Penn. Really, I do. As everyone knows by now, Hillary’s chief strategist was demoted following news that he was working with Colombian officials to promote that nation’s free-trade deal. But, as the old saying goes, misery loves company.

With that thought in mind, can’t we all agree that Bill Clinton should immediately resign from Hillary’s campaign? Or at least be demoted?

After all — and to his credit — Bill’s been a big supporter of this trade deal for quite some time. Almost a decade, actually. In fact, a Colombian development firm based in Bogota paid him $800,000 for various appearances a few years ago. Nice chunk of change! Moreover, the ex-president has met repeatedly with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. One of those meetings actually took place at the Clinton home in Chappaqua, New York.

Let me get this straight: Bill’s been out and about, actively working on, supporting, throwing his weight around, and getting paid (handsomely) for his support on this Colombian trade deal. Just like Mark Penn.

Where’s Hillary’s outrage? And where’s Teamster James Hoffa now that we need him?

Wednesday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS & ECONOMY...Our guests will discuss and debate all the latest trends and developments affecting the stock market and economy.

On board:

*Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist Deutsche Bank
*Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macro
*Jim Lacamp, portfolio manager at RBC Dain Rauscher
*John Browne, financial news columnist

TEXAS'S RECESSION-PROOF ECONOMY...Republican Governor Rick Perry will join us live from Austin with a look at his state's economic strength.

Our market panel will return following our interview with Governor Perry.

INTERVIEW WITH AFLAC'S CEO...Daniel Amos, chairman & CEO of insurance giant Aflac will join us with a look at how is company is faring. We'll also discuss CEO pay packages.

DEBATE: CEO PAY...Squaring off on this controversial subject will be Washington Post business columnist Steven Pearlstein and Trend Macro CIO Don Luskin.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Readers Respond to "What Is the Cost of Freedom?"

Here are a couple of interesting email responses to my blog post from earlier today:

One reader writes:

Mr. Kudlow,

You wrote on the Corner:

"First point: The U.S. has spent roughly $750 billion for the five-year war. Sure, that’s a lot of money. But run the numbers and the total cost works out to a miniscule 1 percent of the $63 trillion GDP over that time period. It’s miniscule."

Yes -- and as I've read elsewhere, how much of that consists of salary and other expenses that would be carried whether troops were in Baghdad, Iraq, Berlin, Germany, or Fayetteville, North Carolina?

[Name withheld]
A member of the armed services in Tacoma asks:

Larry,

Do you know what percentage, if any, of that $750B was spent on active duty salary, and what percentage of materiel cost was greater than baseline training?


Very good questions. We'll sort through all of this and more on tonight's Kudlow & Company with General Wesley Clark, The Wall Street Journal's Steve Moore, and Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.

Tuesday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS...Our stock market guests will discuss and debate all the latest news and developments affecting investors.

On board:

*Greg Valliere, Washington strategist at Stanford Policy Research
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Jack Gage, Forbes magazine associate editor

THE GREENSPAN LEGACY...Our economic panel will weigh in with their thoughts on the former Fed chair and whether Greenspan bears any responsibility for today's economic turmoil.

On board:

*Wayne Angell, former Fed governor
*Jerry Bowyer, chief economist at Benchmark Financial Network
*Vincent Reinhart, former chief monetary-policy adviser to Fed chair Ben Bernanke and current resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute

WHAT IS THE COST OF FREEDOM?...We'll take a look at the costs of the Iraq war and its effect, if any, on the overall U.S. economy.

***A one-on-one interview with General Wesley Clark, former NATO supreme allied commander in Europe and former presidential candidate.

***A debate between Nobel-prize winning former World Bank economist Joseph Stiglitz and Steve Moore, senior economics writer and member of The Wall Street Journal editorial board.

TEXAS'S RECESSION-PROOF ECONOMY...Republican Governor Rick Perry will join us live from Austin with a look at his state's economic strength.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

What Is the Cost of Freedom?

Surprise, surprise. Having failed to penetrate General Petraeus’s story about the great improvements on the ground in Iraq, liberals are now trying to make the case that the cost of the Iraq war may have somehow undermined the economy, and even caused the current slowdown. What complete and utter nonsense.

First point: The U.S. has spent roughly $750 billion for the five-year war. Sure, that’s a lot of money. But run the numbers and the total cost works out to a miniscule 1 percent of the $63 trillion GDP over that time period. It’s miniscule.

More important, the real question we ought to be asking ourselves is what is the cost of freedom? While the Left refuses to acknowledge it, the undeniable fact is that the United States homeland has not been attacked since September 11. Meanwhile, over in Iraq, al Qaeda and other extremist terrorist groups have been utterly routed by U.S. forces. It’s another fact the Left hates to acknowledge.

Perhaps the anti-war forces should recall the portion of John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address, where he called on Americans to pay any price, and bear any burden, in order to preserve freedom, liberty, and democracy. Do these folks actually think 1 percent of GDP is too large a price, too heavy a burden? I sure hope not.

And by the way, despite the current slowdown, during the five years of the Iraq war the U.S. economy has performed remarkably well. Real GDP has increased by 16 percent, or 3 percent annually. The unemployment rate has hovered below a historically low 5 percent for quite some time. Nearly 10 million jobs have been created. Household net worth has increased by $20 trillion. Industrial production has expanded by 13.5 percent. Even home prices, despite the current correction, have increased by 20 percent.

Lest we soon forget, anti-freedom, anti-capitalism jihadists were attempting to drive a dagger through our economy. Not only did they fail miserably on that front, they also failed to stem the rising tide of free-market capitalism throughout the world. Global GDP has averaged nearly 5 percent annually. The capitalization of the world’s stock market increased 159 percent — or $35 trillion. Meanwhile, new emerging-market economies saw their stock market index collectively rise by 223 percent.

So with all respect, I say to Nobelist Joe Stiglitz and others of his ilk: You are wrong.

Monday, April 07, 2008

Monday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS & ECONOMY...Our panel of experts will discuss and debate all the latest issues, trends, and developments affecting the stock market and economy.

On board:

*Art Laffer, economist, president of Laffer Associates
*Joe Battipaglia, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus
*Richard Band, editor of the Profitable Investing newsletter
*Mark Skousen, financial economist, author, professor and editor of Forecasts & Strategies

Also...Wilbur Ross, billionaire investor and founder of WL Ross & Co. will join us with his take on the markets and the economy.

COMMODITIES...Kevin Kerr, president of Kerrtrade.com and editor of MarketWatch's Global Resources, will be aboard with his current thoughts and ideas.

THE MARK PENN FLAP, DEMOCRATS & PROTECTIONISM...James Hoffa, president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, will join us with his perspective on the Hillary Clinton campaign's demotion of chief strategist Mark Penn.

Also...Economist Jerry Bowyer will debate Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Dems + Free Trade = Death Penalty

My pal Jerry Bowyer e-mailed me this morning with the following thought on Clinton bigwig Mark Penn: Free trade among Democrats is so completely dead in the water that any Democratic advisor favoring free trade is subject to the death penalty.

Just take a look at this morning’s New York Sun. Teamster president Jimmy Hoffa is still unhappy with Penn’s demotion, because the Clinton camp still has Penn on the payroll. In other words, Hoffa’s position — which is big labor’s position — is to take the free-trade Mark Penn back behind the barn and shoot him. Anything less will damage Hillary in the Pennsylvania primary.

Of course, it’s just like Obama economic advisor Austan Goolsbee telling the Canadian embassy in Chicago that Obama was really pro-free trade — despite the Illinois senator’s hard-left trade-protectionist stance out on the campaign trail. The Goolsbee flap hurt Obama in Ohio, and the Mark Penn flap is probably going to hurt Hillary in Pennsylvania.

But while Obama lived to see another day, Hillary may be doomed. Especially after her whopper about Bosnian sniper fire. And not to mention her recent falsehood about a pregnant Ohio woman dying, along with her baby, after being denied treatment from an Athens hospital. Hillary claimed the woman didn’t have health insurance, and was denied treatment because she couldn’t come up with the fee. In truth, the woman did have health insurance and was not refused treatment.

The union stranglehold over Democrats this election year is really the big news. (Check out Kim Strassel’s piece in today’s Wall Street Journal.) The message is to raise taxes, end free trade, and promote the union agenda at every turn. That’s the official Democratic mantra for 2008.

All I can say is John McCain should whack away at this union craziness over and over again. On issues like the card check (which would end the secret ballot for union organizing of company workers), or equal pay for men and women, or trade protectionism. McCain ought to be whacking away.

The Therapeutic Power of Recessions

Economic excesses occur in free-market economies, and from time to time they must be cleansed.

Recessions are part of capitalism. They happen every so often. We’ve had two in the last super-prosperous 25 years. And it looks like we’re entering a third one after Friday’s jobs-loss report.

The unemployment rate went up to 5.1 percent, which is still a low number in historical terms. But the March labor report showed a loss of 80,000 payroll jobs, while payrolls in the prior two months were downwardly revised by 67,000. Non-farm payrolls have fallen for three straight months after peaking last December. Private-sector jobs have dropped four consecutive months.

This is a big warning sign. Within the private-sector report, professional and business services payrolls — one of the biggest gainers over the past 15 years — dropped 35,000, the third straight monthly decline following a December peak. Meanwhile, the household survey that picks up entrepreneurial small-business totals is now down 678,000 jobs since a peak in November.

The recessionary handwriting looks to be on the wall. Other recession indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research, such as disposable income and overall business and retail sales, are now several months below their peaks of last fall.

Lest we get too gloomy, there were some positive spots in the employment report. For example, the median duration of unemployment actually fell to a fifteen-month low of 8.1 weeks in March, the lowest level since December 2006. This indicates that about half of the unemployed are finding jobs in about two months. (Hat tip to Prof. Mark Perry of the Carpe Diem blogsite.) Additionally, aggregate hours worked in March actually rose, as did the private and manufacturing work weeks.

So while there is an economic correction at work, it could prove relatively mild. Let’s remember, the U.S. has experienced ten recessions since 1947, averaging ten months in length. But in the more recent high-tech quarter century, in which tax rates and inflation have been historically low, the two recessions of 1990-91 and 2000-01 lasted only eight months.

If the current slump began in November, it could be over by late summer.

And let’s also remember that recessions are therapeutic. They’re even necessary to create the foundations for the next recovery. Economic excesses always occur in free-market capitalist economies, and from time to time they must be cleansed. Just think about the excessive risk-speculation, leverage, and housing prices of the current episode. If anything, recessions make for clean starts.

And think of this: Despite housing woes, credit problems, and the sub-prime virus, banks are still lending to businesses. In other words, we don’t have a genuine, across-the-board credit crunch. This is very good news, and more evidence that an economic contraction will not be drawn out.

That said, there are two related issues that worry me. First is the continued decline in the value of the dollar, which has permitted the global commodities boom (energy and food) to leak into higher U.S. inflation. Bulging commodity costs have depressed the profits of non-financial domestic businesses, where after-tax earnings are down 24 percent from a peak in late 2006.

Profits are the mother’s milk of stocks, businesses, and the economy. And because profits have fallen, some businesses are contracting and laying off workers in order to bring costs back in line with revenues.

If Washington really wants to help the business sector recover, nothing would be better than an across-the-board cut in corporate tax rates. This competitiveness-enhancing action would lower tax costs, boost jobs, and lift worker wages. The growth incentive would reignite the economy. A permanent corporate tax cut would be far better than a temporary consumer rebate.

The other worrisome issue is inflation. The March jobs report showed a continued easing of hourly wage growth. After a 4.3 percent peak in late 2006, average hourly earnings for non-management workers has slowed to 3.6 percent for the twelve months ending in March. Consequently, headline consumer inflation of 4 percent continues to erode average wages. While most all market observers are focused on the sub-prime credit crisis, it’s the pick-up of inflation in recent months that has dampened consumer-spending power and corporate profits.

As lawmakers in Congress contemplate a massive FHA housing bailout package, they would be better advised to look more carefully at the recession-ending benefits of lower business tax rates and a stronger greenback.

In fact, liberal economists should look at a new Rasmussen poll in which 48 percent of voters say the best thing government can do is get out of the way by reducing taxes and regulations. Only 36 percent disagree. What’s more, 59 percent of voters believe it’s more important to create economic growth than to reduce the income gap between rich and poor. Finally, 49 percent say the best government policy is to reduce spending.

Keynesian-style politicians please take notice.

Friday, April 04, 2008

Friday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS, ECONOMY & TODAY'S JOBS NUMBER...Our stock market panel will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends and developments affecting investors.

On board:

*Jim Awad, chairman of WP Stewart Asset Management
*Fritz Meyer, senior investment officer with A I M Advisors
*Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets
*Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.

WASHINGTON TO WALL STREET DEBATE...Our money politics panel will weigh in with its perspective on all the latest hot-button issues.

On board:

*Walter Williams, economics professor at George Mason University
*Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute
*Steve Moore, senior economics writer and member of The Wall Street Journal editorial board

RECESSION ELECTION...Squaring off this evening will be conservative columnist Ann Coulter and economist Jared Bernstein.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Bear’s Discount-Window Woes

In a column written just after the Bear Stearns meltdown, I asked whether the venerable old firm was made a sacrificial lamb. Was Washington sending Main Street a signal that a big Wall Street firm could fail?

There’s still a lot here that I don’t know. I don’t know the value of Bear’s collateral, the counter-party story, and so forth. However, if the Fed had changed its discount-window policies earlier, to reflect the post-Glass-Steagall era, Bear Stearns could have accessed short-term Fed loans. This could have made all the difference in the world.

Better yet, had the Fed opened the discount window to the broker-dealers last August, when the credit storm first hit, the economic and financial landscape would look quite different today. Instead of a run on Bear Stearns, and all the other market-related ruptures, we would have had greater stability earlier in the game.

Here’s what a very anguished Bear Stearns CEO Alan Schwartz had to say in his testimony before the Senate Banking committee yesterday:

It’s my strong belief that by every measure that I can think of, that our balance sheet, our capital ratios, our risk profile, lined up well with all of our leading competitors. So I do believe that if as a policy measure the discount window had been open to investment banks for their high-quality collateral, I think it’s highly, highly unlikely in my personal opinion that we’d be in the situation that we find ourselves in today.
Some additional perspective from guests on last night’s Kudlow & Company:

Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital: “The discount window should have been opened [to non-commercial banks] ten years ago. You and I agree on that one. Glass-Steagall was repealed. They should have treated investment banks and commercial banks the same … I agree with Al Schwartz that it should have been opened, and Bear Stearns would not have gone out. I personally believe that Bear Stearns was thrown under the wheels of the bus for several reasons. Principally among them, the regulators wanted to show — Treasury Department included — that we’re going to discipline our system … So I think from the regulators’ viewpoint, they’re probably thinking, “Okay, we did it alright; what we had to do was sacrifice Bear Stearns, so be it.”

Mike Ozanian, Forbes magazine senior editor: “I think they should have let Bear go to the discount window earlier. I think it would have saved Bear. That would have been the right thing to do … As a guest on your show a couple of months ago, it was my belief that instead of just bashing down the fed funds rate, the Fed should have been using the discount rate at the beginning. And I think it would have been able to spot and identify problems in the banking sector instead of reflating the entire economy. So not only do I think it would have been better for Bear Stearns — and I agree with your column — but I think it would have been better for the overall economy.
The bottom line in all this is that Bear Stearns should have been given the opportunity to access the discount window earlier in the game.

Home Price Reversion to Trend

People are wondering how far home prices have to fall before hitting bottom, or some sustainable level. One way is to look at what a price reversion to trend would entail.
From 1982 to 2001, median existing home prices grew at a 4 percent per year trend rate. We select 2001 as a cut-off, because the Fed dropped the funds rate to 1.75 percent and home sales took off in the subsequent years.

Home prices also surged; until they peaked in 2006, home prices grew at an 8 percent per year pace, double the 1982-2001 trend pace. Home prices have started to correct, with a 2 ½ percent drop in 2007 and 7 percent drop so far this year.

Comparing actual home prices with what the 1982-2001 trend projected, we see that prices in 2006 were almost 40 percent above trend. Current prices are still 16 percent above the trend projection.

If prices are to revert to the trend by next year, they still need to fall another 12 percent from current levels. Reversion to the trend by 2010 would require a 10 percent decline from current levels.

Obviously, prices still have a way to go. However, this also means that homes are becoming more affordable. The home affordability index is now at the highest level since early-2004. (Thanks to Mark Perry at the Carpe Diem blogsite for highlighting this).

Falling home prices aren’t pleasant, but they are part of the market’s self-correction process. It’s also worth noting that even if prices revert to the trend growth rate, a home purchased more than five years ago would still have appreciated in value.

Thursday, April 03, 2008

Thursday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS, CONGRESS TAKES A LOOK AT THE BEAR STEARNS DEAL & MORE...Our stock market panel will discuss and debate today's hearings on Capitol Hill, what's going on in the stock market, and more.

On board:

*Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times reporter
*Mike Ozanian, Forbes Magazine Senior Editor
*Vince Farrell, managing director of Scotsman Capital
*Stefan Abrams, Bryden-Abrams Investment Management managing partner

THE SENATE TACKLES THE BEAR STEARNS DEAL...On to discuss today's hearings will be Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH).

The market panel will rejoin us after the senators.

THE FED, THE ECONOMY & TOMORROW'S JOBS NUMBER...Our economic gurus will weigh in with their perspective.

On board:

*Wayne Angell, former Federal Reserve governor
*Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist Deutsche Bank
*Robert Reich, former Clinton labor secretary, professor of public policy at UCal Berkeley, and "Supercapitalism" author

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

McCain's Veep?

What follows is the transcript of my interview on Kudlow and Company last night with former Republican presidential candidate, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Kudlow: A lot of conservatives think that Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney would make a lovely couple. So here to tell us about this relationship is a great friend of this program, former presidential candidate, Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. Welcome back to the show, sir.

Romney: Thanks Larry. Good to be with you.

Kudlow: Let me begin with this. “The Great Mentioner in the Sky” has you very high on the veep candidate list. Before I ask you about that part of it, I want to kind of turn the tables. If you were the presumptive nominee of the GOP, what are the one or two key qualities that you’d be looking for in your vice president?

Romney: Well, I’m not the presumptive nominee. So I haven’t given a lot of thought to that. But I think history says that the most important characteristic that you look for in a VP is someone who could become the president, in the case that were necessary. That’s what people look for. They’re not looking for anything other than that. Could this person lead the country in a critical time? And these are critical times. So I think you’ll find both parties, the candidates of both parties, selecting individuals who they think could be great presidents if necessary. And people who hopefully could add some political clout as well.

Kudlow: Right now, Mr. McCain is really getting all of it his way. Hillary and Obama are just killing each other. Senator McCain is surging in the polls. But as we move down the road, and we get to the conventions, and we get to the fall campaign, aren’t the two key issues going to be Iraq and the economy?

Romney: You know, I think you’re right. I think people will come home to their party. People talk before an election about how divided the parties are by virtue of the primary. But, after each party has selected their nominee, I think what happens is that people focus on the issues and the differences as to where the candidates would take the nation. And in the case of Senator McCain, he’s made it very clear. He’ll do whatever is necessary to protect the American people. And he’ll also strengthen our economy by reining in spending, and by keeping our tax burden low. By helping people get health insurance, but not by adding hundreds of billions of dollars of new costs in Washington. He will restrain government and grow the economy in the private sector. That’ll make the difference.

Kudlow: What would you recommend to deal with the mortgage mess which appears to be pulling down the economy? Fed head Bernanke today suggested the “r” word for the first time—maybe a small contraction in the first half. How would Governor Mitt Romney solve the mortgage mess?

Romney: Well, I think when you look at the economy, you have to consider that there are two long-term trends that you’re concerned about. One is the up and down cycles. And that’s what’s happening in the subprime mortgage crisis. And the other is the long-term trend for the economy. And, on the short-term, the ups and downs of the mortgage crisis, I think what you have to do is first of all, help homeowners who may lose their homes. Help them stay in their homes, if they can meet the, if you will, the most basic payments of their mortgage. And you want them to stay in homes, instead of having more homes fall into foreclosure. It hurts families. Of course it hurts the market as well. And Secretary Paulson has made a number of recommendations to do just that. You also want to make sure there’s enough credit in the market to keep the credit crunch in one area of the economy—mortgages—from affecting the overall economy. And the Fed has taken action in that regard as well. Longer term however, I think you have to say why is it that people are taking their investments out of dollars, out of America? Why are they concerned about our future? And I think it’s because of overspending in Washington. Over-government spending. And that’s something which is going to have to change.

Kudlow: Do you think a stronger dollar becomes a campaign issue at any point? A lot of people believe the weak dollar has created currency risk, along with the credit risk of the mortgage problem. And that’s kind of stopped foreigners from investing here.

Romney: You know, I think as an overall campaign theme, people are not going to get focused on strong dollar—I think most people don’t really give a lot of thought to currency relationships. But I do think that they’re concerned about, “Is America strong”? And, are we going to be a strong and vibrant economy going forward? And, who is the person most capable of keeping America strong economically? And of course, if you want to see strength in our economy, strength in our dollar, you want to see people of the world recognize that the obligations that our government has made, are obligations it can keep. And right now that means we’re going to have to reform entitlements. And we’re going to have to rein in this tendency of Washington to keep on spending, spending, and spending. And when it comes to spending, I don’t think anyone in Washington has a better record than John McCain at restraining unnecessary and pork-barrel spending.

Kudlow: You have a strong investment background. Would you buy the stock market right now? For the long run?

Romney: Well the answer is yes. You know, when things are soft, when people are fleeing, that’s a good time typically to be investing. I believe in the long-term strength of America. I think we’ll make the right choices this November. I think we will continue to lead the world by virtue of being the most innovative economy in the world. And so I think America’s future is bright. But we’re going to have to make some tough decisions in Washington. And instead of promising people things that we can’t possibly deliver, and putting burdens on our kids and on taxpayers, we’re going to have to finally spend what we take in, instead of spending more than we take in.

Kudlow: We’ve got a brief [video] clip. You endorsed Senator McCain back in mid-February. And he made some comments about you. Let’s take a look at this for a moment.

[Text of McCain’s comments: “I look forward to campaigning with Governor Romney. And I look forward to his continued, very important, role of leadership in our party that he has exercised in the past, and will exercise even more so in the future. Governor Romney, I thank you…I am honored, I am very honored, to have Governor Romney and the members of his team at my side.”]

Kudlow: Mr. Romney, you were with [McCain] in Salt Lake City, what a week or ten days ago? What did you guys talk about when you were out there?

Romney: Well, we had some fun. We were in Salt Lake, and in Denver. We were talking to donors and I expressed confidence in the future of the McCain campaign. I’ve asked my donors to be generous in supporting his campaign. I want to make sure we elect John McCain the next President of the United States. And so we spent some time talking about the economy. We talked about the fun of the campaign—some of the humorous experiences we’d had. I spent some time getting to know his campaign team. And it was fun being back on a campaign airplane, seeing members of the press again—some of whom used to follow my campaign.

Kudlow: When you were with him, did you get good vibes from him? How’s your relationship with him?

Romney: You know, we get along very well. Senator McCain was kind enough to campaign for me in ’94, when I ran against Ted Kennedy. He campaigned again for me when I ran in the governor’s race. We’ve been friends on a number of fronts. We worked together on the Olympics. And while we didn’t see everything eye-to-eye, throughout the campaign, we do believe the same things about strengthening our national defense, about strengthening our economy by keeping the scale of government down, and lowering taxes. We care very deeply about America becoming energy independent. We want to see more people have health insurance. So, on major issues of the day, Senator McCain and I are on the same page.

Kudlow: So if he asks you to serve as his veep, would you take it?

Romney: You know, I think, I frankly think any Republican leader in this country would be honored to serve with Senator McCain as his running mate. And he’s got a long list of people he can turn to. I’m not going to conjecture as to who it might be. But I think there’s some terrific people, and he’ll make a choice there. But I’m certainly not holding my breath.

Kudlow: Could you carry Massachusetts?

Romney: I’m not going to make any predictions in that regard.

Kudlow: Do you think Mr. McCain needs a strong governor with executive experience who knows the economy?

Romney: Oh, I’m always partial and in favor of governors. I think governors bring a lot to a national ticket. But there are also some great senators and other leaders in our party who I’m sure he’s considering.

Kudlow: Alright, Governor Mitt Romney. We appreciate it. It’s wonderful to see you again sir. All the best of luck.

Romney: Thanks Larry. Good to be with you.

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Wednesday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

WASHINGTON'S BAILOUT PACKAGE & WALL STREET'S RESPONSE...Our stock market and economic panel will discuss and debate all the latest developments and what it all means for investors. We'll also discuss Fed chief Ben Bernanke's economic testimony from earlier today.

On board:

Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets
Quentin Hardy, Forbes Silicon Valley Bureau Chief
Jerry Bowyer, chief economist at Benchmark Financial Network
Lee Hoskins, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank in Cleveland

WASHINGTON TO WALL STREET...Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) will offer his perspective on the housing/foreclosure legislation making its way through Congress.

INTERVIEW WITH MITT ROMNEY...The former Massachusetts Governor and GOP presidential candidate will weigh in with his perspective on a variety of subjects including the presidential race, economy, and Washington's bailout package.

YOUR MONEY, YOUR VOTE...Our money politics panel will discuss and debate all the latest news, trends, and developments in the stock market, politics, and economy.

On board:

Jimmy Pethokoukis, senior writer at U.S. News & World Report
Quentin Hardy, Forbes Silicon Valley Bureau Chief
Jerry Bowyer, chief economist at Benchmark Financial Network

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Bailout Rally

The market is rallying big on news reports that Bush will support some kind of Frank–Dodd bill to bailout as much as $400 billion in sub-prime mortgages. CNBC is talking about the ISM, but I doubt that’s much of a factor. The economy is basically flat right now. Profits are soft. Exports and foreign earnings are bright spots.

The bigger theme is the Fed’s move to reduce risk through its earlier actions with investment-bank discount-window operations. And now comes the likely FHA move to guarantee refinanced mortgages on a grand, unprecedented scale. It was in the Washington Post over the weekend and it’s front-page IBD this morning. My contacts confirm the White House movement.

Stocks and the dollar are up; Treasury prices and gold are down. There’s a slight improvement in risk-taking. Swap spreads are narrowing. Treasury man Henry Paulson’s regulatory stuff is not a factor, except to highlight that the Fed is operating on its own judgment to backstop the financial system and take bad collateral.

Wall Street wants this government assistance. They want the bailout. I prefer markets to bailouts, but there's no stopping the Frank-Dodd locomotive. However, the GOP should demand a partial or full repeal of the Community Redevelopment Act (CRA) that was responsible for the substandard subprime loan creation in the first place, going back ten years ago. So far, however, no one wants to touch this hot potato.

Hillary Is Paying in Penn for Her Bosnia Blunder

The latest Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania shows that Hillary’s Bosnia gaffe is hurting her much more among voters in the Keystone State than are Obama’s problems with Rev. Jeremiah Wright. According to Rasmussen, Hillary’s lead has shrunk from 10 points to only 5, and she now is ahead 47 percent to 42 percent. In early March her Pennsylvania tally was 52 percent. Meanwhile Obama has picked up 5 points, moving from 37 to 42.

RealClearPolitics polling averages for Pennsylvania still show Hillary with a 15 point lead, 52 to 37. But while Rasmussen’s sample is dated March 31, RealClear’s three-poll average -- including PPP, Franklin & Marshall, and Quinnipiac -- were sampled during the period ending March 16, two weeks ago. So the full effect of Hillary’s cognitive dissonance concerning Bosnia airport sniper fire that never existed, along with her implied insult to the military forces guarding the airport, has probably taken a major toll on her standing in a state that has many red counties.

Also, Obama’s endorsement by Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey may be having a strong positive effect. Jerry Bowyer, who has operated in Pennsylvania politics for years, believes the Casey name is golden -- much like the Kennedy name in Massachusetts.

If Hillary squeaks out a 5 point win in Pennsylvania, she is sunk. That kind of close race would doom her chances for continuing. And we can expect a large number of Democratic graybeards to come out of the woodwork to call for her dropping out.