Monday, November 05, 2007

Monday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE MARKETS...Our panel will weigh in with their perspective on what lies ahead for investors.

On board:

*Joe Battipaglia, Stifel Nicolas market strategist
*Charlie Gasparino, CNBC’s On-Air Editor
*Dennis Kneale, CNBC media and technology editor

WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE BANKS?...We'll have a one-on-one interview with Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC).

Joining her will be former FDIC chairs William Isaac and Bill Seidman.

MARKETS, THE DOLLAR & MORE...Wall Street trader and author Michael Panzner will join Messrs Kneale, Battipaglia and Gasparino in a debate.

THE WORLD BANK'S $900 MILLION DOLLAR LOAN TO IRAN...On to debate will be former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich and The Wall Street Journal's Steve Moore.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Here's Your $900,000,000 Check Mr. Ahmadinejad...

Unbelievable.

World Bank Vows a Big Loan to Iran
$900 Million for Mullahs, as Zoellick Snubs Inquiry


By ELI LAKE
Staff Reporter of the Sun
November 5, 2007

WASHINGTON — The World Bank is defying requests from an influential congressman to stall nearly $900 million in loans to Iran.

Earlier this year, the president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, who before taking that office served in a top Bush administration foreign policy post, declined a privately made request from Rep. Mark Kirk, a Republican from Illinois, to suspend the loans. World Bank spokesmen told The New York Sun that the bank will go ahead with the loans....

Click here to continue reading.

Rush Agrees: It's a Boom, Not a Recession

Looks like Rush Limbaugh agrees that it’s the greatest story never told.

Here’s the transcript from his radio show last Friday. Scroll down a bit to read his take on my latest column, “Despite the Gloom, More Bush Boom.” He spent a nice little chunk of time talking about it.

So, let me ask again: If things are so bad, why are they so good?

Laffer's Supply-Side Counter-Offensive

Supply-side founder and mentor Art Laffer is mounting a terrific counter-offensive to the supply-side attack coming from The New Republic’s Jonathan Chait and The New Yorker’s James Surowiecki. In a recent piece entitled, The Onslaught From the Left, Part I: Fact Versus Fiction*, Art makes three summary points:

• This paper serves as a response to a recent The New Republic article by Jonathan Chait which criticizes the supply-side economics movement and lays out the typical redistributionist’s case for raising taxes on the rich.

• While the article refers to supply siders as “wingnuts,” the tenets of supply-side economics—low taxes, sound money, free trade, reduced regulations, etc.—have been adopted (successfully, I might add) in the U.S. and across the globe.

• The best way to help the poor is not to make the rich poorer, but to make the poor richer. All Americans as a whole have gotten richer as a result of pro-growth supply-side policies. The economic and social gains of the past 25 years—across class, race and gender lines—speak for themselves. The irony is that many of the policies promoted by the Left would hurt the very classes of people whom the Left professes to champion.


On Kudlow & Company Friday night, Art brilliantly defended supply-side economics in a face-to-face discussion with Mr. Surowiecki. By the way, James Surowiecki is usually quite reasonable, particularly his writings on the wisdom of markets. And he acknowledged the supply-side incentive effects that spur growth from lower marginal tax rates.

*If you would like to read Art’s paper in its entirety, please click here for the PDF version.

Friday, November 02, 2007

Art Laffer's Supply-Side Paper

Art Laffer was on the show tonight defending supply-side economics. We are attempting to post his recent paper here, but are experiencing technical difficulties. Please check back soon.

Friday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

A LOOK AT THE MARKETS WITH JIM ROGERS...The investment guru and co-founder (along with George Soros) of the Quantum Fund will join me in an exclusive one-on-one interview to start the show.

Economist Art Laffer will join in the discussion.

THE MARKETS & ECONOMY...Our panel will weigh in with their perspective.

On board:

*Jim Rogers, investment guru/co-founder of the Quantum Fund
*Art Laffer, chairman of Laffer Associates
*Michael Panzner, Wall Street trader/author of "Financial Armageddon"
*Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research

TODAY'S BLOWOUT JOBS NUMBER...On to debate are Walt Williams, economics professor at George Mason University and Jared Bernstein from the Economic Policy Institute.

SUPPLY-SIDE DEBATE...Duking it out are economist Art Laffer and New Yorker economist and "The Wisdom of Crowds" author James Surowiecki.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Playing the Gender Card

Excerpt from Kathleen Parker's, "The pants vs. the pantsuit," in the San Francisco Chronicle:

"When you're leading the Democratic presidential race, as Sen. Hillary Clinton is, you might expect other candidates to focus their sharpest criticism your way.

Yet the spin coming out of the Clinton campaign is that the men were ganging up on Hillary. Sorry, but when girls insist on playing hardball with the boys, they don't get to cry foul - or change the game to dodge ball - when they get bruised.

...Getting a straight answer from Hillary is consistently challenging, as other candidates noted - hence the many "Hillary" references. Their "attacks" weren't only because Hillary leads the pack, but because she's cagey to a fault.

At times, Hillary's relationship to nuance borders on compulsion more than wisdom. If her husband triangulated, she pentagonates. She's been working so many sides for so long that she seems incapable of yes or no.

Hillary can handle the men just fine. What's giving her problems is Hillary."

The Girl’s Got Game

Well, well, well … 166,000 new jobs. Twice the consensus view. Did somebody say Goldilocks? Did somebody say the greatest story never told?

U.S. businesses and entrepreneurs are in very good shape. These are the real job creators. And with low tax rates, low inflation, and low interest rates, the economic and stock market outlook looks extremely bullish. The economic bears continue to underestimate the strength of the consumer because they continue to underestimate the strength of business. Ultimately, it is business that creates jobs. And it is jobs that create income.

Here’s the key point: Outside the struggling financial and consumer discretionary sectors, the economy is firing on all cylinders. Economy-wide profits are up a smoldering 15 percent in the third quarter when you remove these two laggards. And in addition to today’s robust, expansionary jobs number, GDP blew away forecasts earlier this week, coming in a hair shy of 4 percent. (For the record, this represents the biggest back-to-back quarterly gain in four years.) This means healthy American businesses are generating jobs. Meanwhile, hardworking American workers are out there spending money, with real, disposable, after-tax, after-inflation income running around 4 percent — a big number.

In the October jobs report, average hourly wages for non-management workers increased 3.8 percent, well above inflation. These wage gains don’t come from home-equity lines. They come from strong job creation. This is the heart of the consumer story. The October jobs gain is the best in five months. Over the past year, 1.7 million new jobs have been created. The bulk of these, by the way, are coming from high-pay service jobs, including business and professional services, as well as education and health services.

Looking back over four years, from the middle of 2003 when President Bush’s tax cuts took effect, the economy has created 8.6 million new jobs. Presently, non-farm payrolls in the U.S. stand at 138.5 million, a new record high. The unemployment rate today is a low 4.7 percent. And total civilian employment stands at 146 million, just shy of the record high. In fact, when you look at the October jobs report, it appears that employment is speeding up, not slowing down.

Message to all you worrywarts out there: The U.S. economy remains strong. There is no recession ahead. Goldilocks rules.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

A Bullish Indicator

Yesterday’s GDP report revealed an extremely positive story.

Real disposable income—one of the most important indicators of the economy and the health of consumers—showed a remarkable 4.1 percent growth over the past year.

Look at this beautiful chart.


In fact, it’s up $370 plus billion dollars from a year ago, with energy costs flat. This type of trend is not going to simply fall over and collapse the minute we walk into the next quarter.

Incidentally, real disposable income also happens to be one of the best political indicators out there. Its continued growth is cause for celebration for the GOP candidates and concern for Democrats.

Thursday Night Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

THE STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY...Our panel of experts will weigh in with their take on all the latest news and developments and what lies ahead for investors.

On board:

*Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors
*Mark Skousen, author, editor of Forecasts & Strategies
*Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co
*Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist, LPL Financial Services

INTERVIEW WITH RUDY GIULIANI...The former NYC mayor and GOP presidential contender will discuss a whole range of issues including the economy, terrorism, and Hillary Clinton.

MONEY POLITICS PANEL...Our guests will weigh in with their thoughts on the Giuilani interview and a host of other Washington to Wall Street topics.

On board:

*Kellyanne Conway, president of the polling company
*Robert Reich, UCal Berkeley professor/former Clinton Labor Secretary
*Steve Moore, member of The Wall Street Journal editorial board.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Reach Out to Rangel

Right now, President Bush ought to hold a news conference and say that he is intrigued with Charlie Rangel’s idea of cutting the corporate tax—not all the other high tax bells and whistles, but the corporate tax cut idea.

Mr. Bush could say that now’s the time to insure continued economic growth in the face of soft spots like the housing recession and the subprime credit freeze. And since Europe has been cutting corporate taxes and the euro has been going up, its time for the US to cut its corporate tax to be more competitive, help the sagging US dollar, provide investment and worker wage boosts, and promote overall economic growth.

While he’s at it, the president could borrow an idea from Loews CEO James Tisch and cut the corporate capital gains tax.

Many economists believe that reducing corporate taxes on income and capital gains would be self-financing. Besides, it wouldn’t be hard to identify a number of corporate tax loopholes that would no longer be necessary if the tax rate were dropped to 25 percent from its current 35 percent level.

Reach out to Mr. Rangel. Don’t trash him. Take the good; leave the bad. Sure would make a good press conference. Sure would be good for the economy and the ailing greenback.

Competitive Realignment


(An exchange on last night's Kudlow & Company)

KUDLOW: Okay, financials have gotten whacked—the loan stuff, the credit-freeze. It’s not over, I agree with that. There’s still a credit deflation going on. But…in the next ten, fifteen, twenty years, American financials are going to do great. Why wouldn’t I be looking to buy into that story right now if I had a longer-term viewpoint?

DON LUSKIN (Trend Macro CIO): You should be buying into it. These companies have just been trashed for no reason. What we’ve seen is a kind of acid-bath, where they all got dipped in the bath. And some of them came out corroded and ruined, and some of them came out shining and new. Goldman Sachs is a big winner; Merrill Lynch is a big loser. We call that a competitive realignment—creative destruction. In this country, we let that happen. And that is what makes American business great.

Rudy Interview

I just wrapped up an interview with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in downtown Manhattan. We had a great (occasionally heated) discussion. The leading Republican presidential candidate and I covered quite a bit of ground. Topics included Charlie Rangel's new tax plan, waterboarding, Hillary Clinton, the economy, and more.

The full interview will broadcast tonight at 7pm ET on CNBC. We hope you'll join us.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

If Things are So Bad, Why Are They So Good?

Don’t look now, but we’re in the middle of an economic boom.

The last two quarters are the strongest GDP in four years—just about 4 percent real growth. Consumer incomes are 4 percent ahead of last year, after taxes, after inflation.

The booming export sector has cancelled out the recessionary housing sector. The economy is speeding up. The jobs numbers we got from ADP today suggest that we could get 125,000, maybe 150,000 jobs on Friday. That’s post-August, post-credit crunch, post-pessimism, post-doom-and-gloom, and post-bearishness.

Look, I’m not saying we’re going to get 4 percent growth for the next four quarters. I acknowledge the housing recession. I acknowledge a lot more price-cutting is going to go on. I acknowledge pockets of credit freeze in the banking system and financial markets. But I also want to acknowledge the fact that a low-tax rate, low-inflation rate, low-interest rate economy is performing superbly. It’s shown itself to be extremely resilient. And that’s why the stock market has done so well this autumn.

I wish somebody would give this economy—the greatest-story-never-told—just a little credit. The fact is that stock prices are hovering near record highs, inflation is coming down, growth is going up, and jobs are going up.

We can forecast until we’re all blue in the face. But the reality is that the economy looks a lot better than the prognosticators suggest.

Wednesday Night's Special Lineup

On CNBC's Kudlow & Company at 7pm ET tonight:

If things are so bad, then why are they so good?

OUR FED GURUS will discuss today's Fed decision to lower the fed funds rate to 4.50 percent.

On board:

*Wayne Angell, former Federal Reserve Governor
*Bill Heller, former Federal Reserve Governor
*John Taylor, Stanford University economics professor & former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs

MAKING SENSE OF IT ALL...Our panel will discuss all the latest news and developments affecting the dollar, inflation, gold, oil, and more.

On board:

*David Malpass, Bear Stearns chief economist
*John Browne, editor of moneynews.com
*Jerry Bowyer, chief economist at Benchmark Financial Network/NRO contributor

THE STOCK MARKET...Our market panel will offer their insight on what lies ahead for investors, $700 Google shares, financials, and more.

*Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.
*Don Luskin, CIO at Trend Macro
*Stefan Abrams, Bryden-Abrams Investment Management managing partner

GDP POLITICS...On to discuss how the economy will affect the candidates are the Economic Policy Institute's Jared Bernstein and "Jimmy P" Pethokoukis, senior writer at U.S. News & World Report.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Tuesday Night Lineup

(Please note that CNBC's Kudlow & Company has moved to its new 7pm ET time slot.)

HOUSING, TOMORROW'S FED DECISION, & MORE

On board:

*Robert Shiller, housing expert/Yale University econ professor
*William Ford, former Atlanta Fed President
*Alice Rivlin, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair

THE MARKETS...On to debate are Robert Shiller, Joe Battipaglia, market strategist for Stifel Nicolaus and CNBC's Dennis Kneale.

$100 OIL...On to offer his take is George Littell, partner at Groppe, Long & Littell. Messrs. Battipaglia and Kneale will join in.

TREASURY MAN PAULSON, THE DOLLAR & FED...The Dynamic Duo of former Labor Secretary Robert Reich and The Wall Street Journal's Steve Moore will discuss.

A GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE between former California Attorney General Jerry Brown and conservative political pundit Pat Buchanan.

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

A Look At Earnings

Here’s an interesting way to look at the latest crop of earnings:


If you take out financials and consumer cyclicals, you’re left with a 13 percent increase in the other eight sectors of the S&P 500. In other words, while housing & subprime are weak and remain a problem, the rest of the economy and the rest of earnings are doing great.

The Oil Debate

We had a dynamite oil discussion on last night’s Kudlow & Company. My take on the price of oil is that it’s largely being determined by the strength of the global economic boom. It’s about the global spread of capitalism throughout China, India, Eastern Europe, and everyplace else.

Incidentally, higher priced oil doesn’t pack the same punch as it used to.

Check out the following chart.

Isn't that wonderful? What it shows is that the use of oil per GDP unit is down 50 percent since World War II. Around 1950, energy consumption was just under 20 percent. Then around 1980, it had fallen to around 15 percent. Nowadays, it’s down under 9 percent. This is good news. So why’s everyone hyperventilating about oil? Why’s everyone so pessimistic?

Here are some additional thoughts from a couple of my guests.

DAN YERGIN (chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates): [The price of oil] is decoupled from the fundamentals of supply and demand. What’s driving the oil price now is the cauldron of geopolitics, momentum and financial markets, and tying it all together, fear, combined with a weakening dollar. So we could be one or two events away from $100 a barrel oil. So events could put it there. But if you look at it in terms of supply and demand, it’s not as connected as it was in the past…I think the way it’s going now, some other events, some more intensification—we’re just six dollars away from $100, we can get there. But you know…economics work. And at some point, the price will respond to it, particularly when it’s disconnected from fundamentals.

BOB HORMATS (Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International): I think [the price of oil] is out of line with the fundamentals, let me address that first. Oil is not just an economic commodity, it’s a political commodity. And every time you get a lot of fear in a region that produces a lot of oil, even if it’s not directly related to that oil supply, even if it’s around that area, it does tend to push prices up. And we shouldn’t forget the fact that there’s an increasing escalation of pressure on Iran. That doesn’t mean the [United States] is going to move against Iran, but the markets look at this and they don’t want to get caught flat-footed if in fact that were to occur. I don’t think either of those things are going to happen in the near-term. I do think that the price is out of line with fundamentals. But as long as these political risks are perceived in the market, [the price of oil] is going to be high…I think the next move is going to be up because there are so many political uncertainties in the oil producing parts of the world. It’s hard to see it going down. Economically, it would go down, but the geopolitics of oil are going to keep it up higher.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Monday Night Lineup

(Please note that CNBC's Kudlow & Company has moved to its new 7pm ET time slot.)

***THE OIL STORY, EMERGING MARKETS & MORE

On to discuss:

*Bob Hormats, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International
*Dan Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates
*Ken Timmerman, Executive Director of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran, and author of "Countdown to Crisis: the Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran."

FED & THE ECONOMY...Our panel will take a look at the latest economic news and offer their take on what lies ahead in this week's Fed meeting.

On board:

*Lyle Gramley, former Federal Reserve Governor
*Michelle Girard, senior economist at RBS Greenwich Capital
*Joe LaVorgna, chief US economist, Deutsche Bank

THE STOCK MARKET

*Charlie Gasparino, CNBC’s On-Air Editor
*Jim Lacamp, portfolio manager at RBC Dain Rauscher
*Michael Panzner, trader, "Financial Armageddon" author

MONEY POLITIC$

*Frank Newport, Gallup Poll editor-in-chief
*John Fund, columnist for The Wall Street Journal
*Jonathan Rauch, senior writer for National Journal magazine

Please join us at 7pm ET on CNBC for another free market edition of Kudlow & Company.

Working with Charlie

Okay, okay.

House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel’s “mother of all tax reforms” has some very serious flaws. My supply-side friends have been trashing his plan mercilessly since its unveiling late last week. And as I told Mr. Rangel, when I interviewed him last Thursday night on Kudlow & Company, raising the top tax rates on America’s most successful earners and investors is not a good idea. It’s a surefire way to damage U.S. competitiveness. It will also reduce our potential to grow (not only long-term, but in the short run, as the economy is softening.)

Still, I come to praise Mr. Rangel, not to bury him.

Charlie Rangel is the first Democrat in Washington, or on the campaign trail for that matter, to propose a pro-growth tax cut, namely a reduction in the corporate tax rate. No democrat has gone there before. That’s big stuff. It means something. Democratic leaders are backing away from Mr. Rangel due to their unwillingness to propose pro-growth tax cuts and their obsession with punishing the rich. The last pro-growth democrat to propose lower tax rates was the late President John F. Kennedy. He lowered taxes across the board for all individuals and companies. Might Charlie Rangel be part of the JFK tradition?

Supply-siders have long believed that tax reform should broaden the base by eliminating complex credits, deductions, subsidies, and tax expenditures, while at the same time reducing high marginal tax rates that impair economic growth and incentives. Right now, the most punitive high marginal tax rate under current law is the 35 percent corporate tax rate. It’s been a drag on growth and worker wages.

Incidentally, in an earlier conversation with Mr. Rangel, he told me that Treasury man Henry Paulson had convinced him of the need to reform the anti-competitive corporate tax. That tells me that Charlie Rangel is open to an important pro-growth tax reform. In that spirit, I believe Mr. Rangel deserves be treated in a more kindly and hospitable manner by my fellow supply-siders. Charlie is someone we can work with. We can do business with him.

I remember years ago, back in the early 1990s, when Charlie worked with Jack Kemp to lower the capital gains tax. This was done not only as a means of improving the sluggish economy (following the commercial real estate credit crunch), but also as a way of providing more capital to African-American neighborhoods, businesses, and entrepreneurs where the lack of outside capital choked off economic growth and prevented blacks from climbing the ladder of opportunity. Mr. Rangel’s willingness to buck his party and consider a lower capital gains tax is another reason why I believe the House’s top taxman deserves just a little more praise, and a little less criticism, than he’s been getting from my brethren.

And by the way, where are the republicans on full-scale tax reform? What we need right now is for the White House to respond to Mr. Rangel with a full-fledged tax reform plan of its own. The Bush administration had a tax reform panel in 2005 led by former Senators Connie Mack and John Breaux. And while the results of that panel were far from perfect, it could potentially constitute an important talking point in a conversation with Mr. Rangel. We need to add oxygen to the tax reform conversation, not smother it.

We also need to hear from the Republican presidential candidates on their ideas for full-scale tax reform. Let’s get specific, fellas. So far, the only candidate who has proposed anything of substance is former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with his national sales tax idea called the Fair Tax. While the other GOP frontrunners have pledged to maintain President Bush’s tax cuts that expire in 2010 (obviously a good idea), so far they have not proposed any specific, far-reaching new tax reform plans. The time has come gentlemen.

If the White House weighed in, and if the Republican candidates weighed in, and if the conversation with Mr. Rangel were expanded and nurtured, rather than stymied and steamrolled, that would leave the Democratic congressional leadership and their presidential candidates as the odd person out. That creates a political opportunity.

We need to encourage tax reform by maintaining an open, friendly conversation with Mr. Rangel and nurturing additional, specific, tax reform ideas from GOP leaders. Just as I’ve always preferred optimism to pessimism, and positives to negatives, I also prefer friendly discussions to holier-than-thou trashings. Let’s work with Charlie.