Thursday, May 08, 2008

Kudlow 101: A Money Politics Game-Changer?

As far as the Intrade pay-to-play prediction market is concerned, Senator Obama has enjoyed a considerable surge since Tuesday’s primaries. Take a look.

You’ll see that Obama had actually slipped down to around 40 percent in the past week or so. But following his big double-digit win in North Carolina, the close-call in Indiana, as well as increased pressure on Hillary to bow out from party bigwigs, Obama has rocketed all the way to up to 56 percent. It’s quite a move.

The next chart offers a nice snapshot of Hillary nose-diving to extinction.

Of course, Senator Clinton wasn’t that high to begin with. But since her latest lackluster performance on Tuesday, she has shed an additional 10 points, dropping from 18 percent to only 8 percent. Never say never, but it sure looks like that goose is cooked.

Next up, the McCain odds.

As we all know, Mac made a meteoric move since languishing in the low single digits back in autumn of ’07. He was basically written off. Now he’s up just shy of 40 percent. A huge move. But that still leaves him with a very big deficit to Obama, according to the wisdom of crowds per the Intrade betting market.

And lastly, here’s a look at Intrade’s odds on Democrats capturing both houses of Congress come November. It’s not a pretty picture.

As you can see, the Intrade odds have the Dems winning the House at 94 percent, and 92 percent in the Senate. So we’re looking at a potential three House Democratic sweep. Talk about rubbing salt into a wound. Suffice to say, that is not a bullish scenario for stocks. That is not a pro-growth recipe for economic growth.

Yes, it’ still early in the game. Yes, there’s still time left on the clock. But much work needs to be done. Starting now.