Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Looking Good Goldilocks

Well, well, well.

Today’s remarkably strong retail report dealt a big body blow to the recession scenario.

This unexpected 1% gain is a big number. It took most people by surprise. It’s another sign pointing to the resiliency of the U.S. consumer.

The key point here is that it virtually eliminates the zero percent Q4 scenario from recession bears like Nouriel Roubini. You can't get zero here - toss that scenario in the garbage.

I’ve been saying for quite some time now that U.S. consumers are alive and well.

Back in the middle of August, I wrote in NRO, “The great American consumer has been written off so many times in the last couple of years, just like the rest of the economy. But he/she is alive and kicking. Another great story never told.”

The key themes are strong job creation, low unemployment, and rising wages.

Despite all the gloomy forecasts from the perma-bear camp, all the talk about housing, etc, the great American economy rolls on.